There was little change in bond yields on Wednesday morning as traders waited for the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes to be released.
What’s happening
What’s driving markets
Investors were hesitant to make risky investments until the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on January 31st at 2 p.m. Eastern time were released.
In recent weeks, the 10-year Treasury yields have been gradually increasing and are now approaching the upper end of the range between 3.8% and 4.3%. This is a result of unexpected inflation and employment data, causing Federal Reserve officials to hint at a possible lack of rate cuts in March.
Analysts expect that the upcoming minutes will reflect the same stance.
On Wednesday, a number of Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak. The day will start with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s opening remarks at 8 a.m. Eastern time, followed by an interview with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on SiriusXM radio at 9:10 a.m., and comments from Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman at 1 p.m.
Based on the CME FedWatch tool, there is a high probability of 93.5% that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 5.25% to 5.50% following the upcoming meeting on March 20th.
The likelihood of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the May meeting has decreased to 37.2% from 84.7% a month ago. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its Fed funds rate target to approximately 4.5% by December 2024, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures.
At 1 p.m., the Treasury plans to auction off $16 billion of 20-year notes.
What are analysts saying
The Citi economics team, headed by Andrew Hollenhorst, expects that the Federal Reserve will make its first 0.25% interest rate cut in June, as predicted by the market.
They stated that the current situation of robust job growth and elevated inflation rates presents difficulties in justifying a decrease in interest rates, and this stance will be reflected in the meeting minutes. However, a potential drop in year-over-year core PCE data could potentially convince Federal Reserve officials to cut rates, despite the ongoing economic conditions.
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