Despite the surge in other major U.S. stock-market averages to record highs, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) has struggled, remaining more than 6% below its peak from November 2021. Over the past year, it has lagged behind the broader Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by over 12 percentage points.
This performance has raised concerns among investors who view the transportation sector as a leading indicator of U.S. economic activity.
However, historical data suggests a different story. Analyzing the U.S. stock market’s performance since 1928 reveals that the S&P 500 tends to perform better following periods of significant underperformance by the Dow Transports compared to the Dow Industrials, as is currently the case.
Moreover, even when the Dow Transports experience absolute declines rather than just relative weakness compared to the DJIA, there’s no significant cause for alarm. On average, the S&P 500 has exhibited stronger performance following 12-month periods of decline in the Dow Transports compared to periods of gains.
In summary, while concerns such as overvaluation and excessive optimism persist, worrying about the weakness in the Dow Transports may not be justified.
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