Market Response Post-Debate
Markets reacted swiftly to Thursday’s debate, anticipating a higher chance of former President Donald Trump defeating President Joe Biden. Stock-index futures and the U.S. dollar rose as Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledged Biden’s “slow start.”
Scaramucci’s Shift in Perspective
Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge and former Trump spokesperson, now believes it would take something “seismic” for Trump not to win, reversing his previous expectation of a Biden re-election.
Potential for a New Democratic Nominee
New York Times columnist Ezra Klein suggested Democrats might consider a new nominee at the August convention, citing historical precedents like Lincoln and Roosevelt.
Betting Market Movements
On PredictIt, Trump’s contract rose from 53 to 61 cents, while Biden’s dropped from 48 to 31 cents. Other Democrats, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, saw gains. Despite this, Newsom affirmed his support for Biden.
Possible Democratic Candidates
Trending names included Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former First Lady Michelle Obama, Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Vice President Harris.
Nate Silver’s Analysis
Polling expert Nate Silver expressed a preference for Harris or Newsom over Biden, despite them not being his first choices.
Intra-Party Challenges
Grace Fan from TS Lombard highlighted the challenge of nominating Biden before Ohio’s August 7 certification deadline. Biden’s debate performance has intensified intra-party discussions.
Goldman Sachs’ Market Forecasts
Goldman Sachs outlined different market scenarios: a Republican sweep could lead to modest equity rallies, higher yields, and a stronger dollar, while a Democratic sweep might cause modest equity declines, higher yields, and a weaker dollar.
Market movements will depend on shifts in the odds of a Democratic or Republican win and potential policy changes from any new candidate.
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