Since 2008, the S&P 500 has declined during the two months leading up to every U.S. presidential election, with an average drop of 5.8%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Looking further back to 1952, the index has averaged a slight decline of 0.2% in this period, though the median result shows a 0.1% gain, with a 50-50 split between positive and negative outcomes.
While historical trends can be insightful, market experts warn against viewing them as predictive. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have also typically declined in this two-month window.
The Dow has risen only one-third of the time, and the Nasdaq just 38.5% of the time since 1972.
September is historically the weakest month, with an average decline of 0.78% since 1944. In presidential election years, this weakness often extends into October.
Normally a positive month with a 1.04% average gain, October has instead seen an average drop of 0.45% in election years.
Successful trading hinges on effective risk-to-reward trade management. At Day Trade to Win, we emphasize…
A team of strategists at Ned Davis Research has been analyzing market trends, and their…
Today, February 20th, I’m excited to share my hands-on experience using the Sonic Trading System…
Investors Should Embrace Stocks Record Highs While Staying Vigilant For the first time in nearly…
Fiscal Stimulus: The Key to Sustaining China’s Market Rebound Chinese stocks are regaining momentum, fueled…
UBS and Goldman Sachs Raise Gold Price Forecasts, Citing Investor Sentiment and Central Bank Demand…