stock market

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower, settling at 5,572.07, after a volatile trading session, according to FactSet. A correction would occur if the index falls 10% from its recent peak, which would bring it to 5,529.74, based on Dow Jones Market Data. Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager for U.S. equities, stated, “I don’t believe the administration’s aim is to push the economy into a recession,” regarding President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The U.S. stock market is facing a downturn, fueled by negative sentiment surrounding Trump’s tariffs. The S&P 500 is struggling to recover from a significant drop, nearing correction territory. Slimmon expressed in a phone interview that market participants are focusing on the “darker side of tariffs.” He remained unconvinced that these tariffs would cause major inflation or severely harm the economy. As tariffs—both imposed and threatened by the White House—continue to loom, market volatility has been increasing. Investors are concerned that the tariffs could escalate trade wars, hurting the economy and driving inflation. President Trump announced on Tuesday that a new 25% tariff would be imposed on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, raising the total tariff to 50%. This move was linked to Ontario’s proposed 25% tariff on electricity exports to the U.S., effective Wednesday. However, following a retreat from Ontario Premier Doug Ford on the electricity surcharge, the U.S. administration backtracked and decided to maintain the original 25% tariff on metals. As the market processes this shifting news, Slimmon acknowledged that there’s substantial uncertainty. However, he asserted, “I don’t think the administration is trying to drive the economy into recession.” Meanwhile, the market is bracing for reciprocal tariffs that President Trump plans to implement on April 2. Slimmon noted that U.S. stocks may struggle to rally significantly ahead of that date, as investor sentiment has turned increasingly negative over tariff concerns. Despite the broader selloff, Slimmon sees potential buying opportunities. He emphasized that when the market reacts negatively to Washington, investors should focus on fundamentals. He expects the market to be higher by the end of the year, though he wouldn’t be surprised by a single-digit return. After strong years in 2023 and 2024, U.S. stocks are stumbling in 2025, with the S&P 500 down 5.3% as of Tuesday. Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, commented that the market is now in a “fair value” range and could see some buying interest if fears of a policy-induced growth slowdown don’t materialize. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a gauge of investor anxiety, has jumped nearly 55% this year, reaching almost 27 on Tuesday. Slimmon pointed out that speculative stocks have been especially hard-hit in the downturn, with momentum stocks taking a heavy beating. However, he sees potential in well-established Wall Street banks and certain Big Tech companies, particularly semiconductor stocks, which are more appealing than a few weeks ago. While many Big Tech stocks have struggled this year, including Nvidia Corp., down 19%, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF, down nearly 11%, Slimmon believes they may present good opportunities moving forward. Despite concerns over slowing growth, market participants are pricing in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by year’s end. However, Slimmon does not expect a U.S. recession this year and sees the Fed as a potential counterbalance to investor concerns about fiscal policies. Still, Monday’s sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7%, has unsettled investors. Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research remarked that the drop isn’t a clear sell signal but suggests caution amid market volatility. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Dow Drops Nearly 900 Points as S&P 500 Nears Correction U.S. stock markets endured their worst session of 2025 on Monday, as investor fears of a potential recession intensified. The Trump administration’s attempts to reassure markets fell flat, raising the prospect of further selloffs and a possible bear market for the Nasdaq Composite Index. The Nasdaq Composite suffered the steepest losses, plunging 727.90 points, or 4%, to close at 17,468.32—its lowest level since September 11, 2024. This marked its biggest percentage drop since September 13, 2022. Having already entered correction territory last week with a 10% decline from its peak, the index is now down 13.4% from its record close of 20,173.89 on December 16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 890.01 points, or 2.1%, to settle at 41,911.71, after dipping as much as 1,189 points intraday. The S&P 500 also saw a sharp decline, falling 155.64 points, or 2.7%, to close at 5,614.56, putting it 8.6% below its record close of 6,144.15 from February 19. Market analysts anticipate further downside. “This selloff may not be over,” warned Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. He pointed out that with the Nasdaq in correction mode and the S&P 500 teetering on the edge, continued selling pressure is likely. “Is a bear market next? The risk for the Nasdaq is growing,” he added. President Donald Trump attempted to calm markets over the weekend, downplaying the effects of his administration’s tariff policies in a Fox News interview. However, he acknowledged that a recession in 2025 was a possibility. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett sought to reassure investors in a CNBC interview on Monday, but market reaction suggested that confidence remained shaky. “The market is sending a strong message,” Cardillo stated, highlighting that bond markets were signaling recession fears. Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, continued to decline, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates to stabilize the economy. Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, attributed the selloff to mounting uncertainty over tariffs, the looming debt ceiling fight, and discussions on extending Trump-era tax cuts. He warned that hesitation from businesses and consumers amid this uncertainty could slow economic growth and weaken corporate earnings. While fear is driving market sentiment, Essaye emphasized that “the data itself hasn’t turned negative yet.” Corporate earnings remain solid, and analysts have not yet made sweeping downward revisions to estimates. However, with the S&P 500 still trading at over 21 times expected earnings, the index remains vulnerable to further declines. The 10-year Treasury yield, now at 4.212%, has dropped from its recent 4.8% peak as inflation concerns give way to economic slowdown fears. Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently described the economy as “in good shape,” escalating trade tensions have darkened the outlook. This has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may reconsider its cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025. “The market has shifted from optimism to anxiety in a matter of weeks,” noted Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities USA. Investors now face a range of uncertainties—not only regarding Trump’s trade policies and economic approach but also the threat of a government shutdown if Congress fails to pass a budget deal by Friday. “The bond market’s main concern is slowing economic growth, compounded by trade and fiscal uncertainty,” Goldberg told MarketWatch. As volatility grips Wall Street, all eyes are on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve decisions, as investors brace for what could be an extended period of market turbulence. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

DoorDash is among four companies set to join the S&P 500, while AppLovin and Coinbase were not selected. The committee responsible for choosing S&P 500 components exercises discretion in its selections, and this time, it appears to have prioritized stability over volatility. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Friday that four companies will be added to the index later this month. DoorDash Inc. (DASH) is the largest of the new entrants, joining TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO), Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), and Expand Energy Corp. (EXE). The S&P 500 consists of some of the largest U.S. companies by market capitalization, but inclusion is based on more than size alone. Companies must meet criteria related to profitability, public float, and other factors. Additionally, the selection committee considers aspects like sector diversification and stock volatility. While DoorDash met the eligibility requirements, it was not the largest company considered. AppLovin Corp. (APP) and Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR) both have larger market caps but were not chosen. Notably, the committee did not introduce any new technology companies to the S&P 500 in this round. Though DoorDash operates in the tech-driven food-delivery space, it is classified as a consumer-discretionary company. It may have been viewed as a more stable option than AppLovin, which recently came under scrutiny following two short-seller reports. AppLovin’s stock surged more than 700% in 2024 but has declined early in 2025. By contrast, DoorDash shares rose 70% last year and have continued climbing. The company recently qualified for S&P 500 inclusion after meeting profitability requirements. Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN), though smaller than DoorDash, was another widely discussed candidate that was ultimately left out. As a cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase operates in an industry subject to a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape. Its stock has surged over 500% since the end of 2022, but its volatility may have factored into the committee’s decision. Historically, stocks that experience rapid gains ahead of S&P 500 inclusion often face volatility. Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), added in March 2024, has seen its stock price decline by more than half since its inclusion, weighed down by financial control concerns and increasing competition in the server market. The company’s stock remains one of the most volatile in the index. Bernstein analysts have noted that while new entrants tend to outperform the S&P 500 in the year leading up to their addition, their relative returns tend to diminish shortly after the announcement. Stocks typically see an immediate boost after being named as future S&P 500 constituents, as index-tracking funds must purchase shares of the new entrants. This was evident in Friday’s extended trading session, where DoorDash shares climbed 6%, TKO gained 2.4%, Williams-Sonoma rose 1.6%, and Expand Energy advanced 2.3%. Conversely, stocks of companies that were not selected saw declines. AppLovin dropped 4.3%, Interactive Brokers fell 2.6%, and Coinbase slipped 2.1% in after-hours trading. The four new S&P 500 entrants will replace BorgWarner Inc. (BWA), Teleflex Inc. (TFX), Celanese Corp. (CE), and FMC Corp. (FMC) before trading begins on March 24. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

The bulls are starting to sweat. JPMorgan bullish stance has always been measured, and now cracks are beginning to show. After parting ways with Marko Kolanovic due to his unfulfilled bearish forecasts, the bank’s new team, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, set a conservative S&P 500 year-end target of 6,500 — a forecast that sits in the middle of Wall Street projections. Achieving that target would require a 13% surge from current levels, following Thursday’s 1.8% drop that left the index at 5,738.52. “We are sticking with our 6,500 target for year-end but acknowledge significant uncertainty, with the possibility that this level may not be reached until 2026,” the strategists noted. They anticipate the index will trade between 5,200 and 6,000 in the near term before rallying later in the year. Despite recent turbulence, JPMorgan sees minimal recession risk. The strategists believe markets are recalibrating to policy-driven growth concerns, with falling interest rates, oil prices, and a weaker U.S. dollar offering support for risk assets. Lower borrowing costs could unleash pent-up demand in sectors like housing, retail, and autos. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped nearly 30 basis points this year, oil prices are down 7%, and the U.S. dollar index has slid 4% in 2025. Markets are pricing in nearly three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with the potential for additional cuts if economic conditions deteriorate. Policy easing would align with the Treasury secretary’s objective to lower rates, stimulate growth without stoking inflation, and narrow the budget deficit. Additionally, a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal and softer commodity prices could further tame inflation. Corporate earnings and the labor market remain resilient, bolstering the outlook. Credit markets continue to show strength — a rare signal in the late stages of a business cycle. Capital spending initiatives in the U.S., defense spending in Europe, economic easing in China, and pro-growth reforms in Japan could further boost earnings. Meanwhile, the AI boom is accelerating, especially in the U.S. and China, with productivity gains likely to provide an underappreciated lift to earnings. JPMorgan recommends a barbell strategy: defensive stocks like utilities and consumer staples on one side, and rate-sensitive sectors like regional banks and real estate on the other. The bank downgraded large-cap banks to neutral from overweight and upgraded consumer discretionary stocks to neutral from short. Outside the U.S., Chinese tech and internet stocks present significant upside potential. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com