S&P 500 Breaks Records with Unmatched Gains in the First Half of 2024

As the U.S. stock market nears the end of June, Bespoke analyzed the typical first-half performance of the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 index is on track to post significant gains for the first half of 2024, poised to surpass the historical average, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

“The end of the first half of 2024 is rapidly approaching,” Bespoke said in a note emailed Wednesday, with the U.S. stock market in its final week of June trading. The S&P 500 index, a measure of U.S. large-cap stocks, finished Wednesday with a modest rise, boosting its year-to-date gain to 14.8%, according to FactSet data.

While the index’s first-half performance in 2024 is similar to its gains in the first six months of last year and 2021, it significantly exceeds the historical average gain of 4.72% since 1953, Bespoke found.

A handful of Big Tech stocks have driven the S&P 500’s rally this year. Nvidia Corp. shares have surged around 155% in 2024, according to FactSet data. Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., and Microsoft Corp. have all seen their shares rise more than the S&P 500 index this year through Wednesday.

The U.S. stock market closed higher Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eking out a less than 0.1% gain.

The S&P 500 gained more than 4% in the second quarter, following a 10.2% jump in the first three months of this year, according to FactSet data. The S&P 500 has risen 3.8% so far in June.

Looking ahead, “July is a great time of the year for equities,” historically, according to Bespoke. “The best month of the year for the S&P 500, both since its inception and over the past 20 years, is July,” the firm said.