Rob Citrone Predicts U.S. Economic Trade Boom in 2026, Sees Big Upside in Latin America

Despite recent market turbulence, hedge fund veteran Rob Citrone remains confident in both the U.S. economy and select global opportunities. Speaking on Goldman Sachs’ Exchanges podcast, the Discovery Capital Management founder shared his view that markets have grown more volatile and less efficient — but also more full of opportunity.

“Markets today don’t anticipate events the way they used to,” said Citrone, a former protégé of George Soros and Julian Robertson. “There’s more retail money and algorithmic trading now, and they react to headlines rather than looking ahead.”

Citrone’s approach combines macroeconomic analysis with deep dives into individual assets — a strategy he’s used successfully for over 25 years. His fund has gained roughly 50% in each of the past two years, bringing Discovery Capital’s assets under management to around $3 billion. A key driver of those returns: shorting two of the regional banks that failed in 2023.

He acknowledges that shorting is now rare, calling it “a lost art” after many funds were burned during the meme-stock era. But he still sees compelling opportunities on both the long and short side of the market.

Citrone is optimistic about the U.S. economy’s future. He expects a boom in 2026, powered by potential tax cuts and relatively modest tariffs, likely capped at 10% outside of China. He believes this will push the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% by year-end, making rate cuts by the Federal Reserve unlikely.

His confidence in the U.S. rests on what he calls its “exceptionalism” — a strong private sector and technological leadership. But valuations are already pricing in a lot of that optimism, which is why he’s also looking abroad.

One region he’s especially excited about: Latin America. Citrone says the area offers undervalued assets and outsized returns across equities, bonds, credit, and currencies. He sees the region as a relative safe haven amid shifting U.S. trade policy, with no country facing tariffs above 10%.

“Latin America is often overlooked in favor of Asia,” he said. “But China faces a tough road ahead, and I believe Latin America is on the verge of a boom.”

Argentina is his biggest conviction trade right now. Since President Javier Milei’s election in December 2023, Citrone has loaded up on local peso-denominated credit, calling it “a home run.” Milei’s market-friendly reforms and commitment to reducing government spending have fueled a rally, with Argentina’s MERVAL index up roughly 150% since he took office.

Citrone compares the trade to one of his most successful bets — going long the dollar versus the yen in 2013, which earned his fund over a billion dollars.

For retail investors looking to tap into these opportunities, Citrone points to ETFs like the iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) and the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT).

In a market that’s increasingly driven by noise, Citrone believes fundamentals still matter — and that patient, thoughtful investors can thrive.