UBS: Gold Demand Set to Hit Highest Level Since 2011
Investors are bracing for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, with gold traders especially alert for hints of rate cuts. Softer labor data and easing inflation have already boosted expectations for policy easing, a trend that tends to favor gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
UBS Global Wealth Management has turned more bullish. Strategists led by Wayne Gordon now see gold rising to $3,600 an ounce by March 2026 and $3,700 by June 2026, both lifted from prior forecasts of $3,500. The end-2025 target remains $3,500.
Gold has already gained 28% this year, outperforming equities, bonds, G-10 currencies, and bitcoin. UBS cites sticky U.S. inflation, below-trend growth, questions about Fed independence, fiscal risks, and continued de-dollarization as the forces likely to push prices higher.
The bank now forecasts global demand climbing 3% to 4,760 metric tons in 2025, the strongest since 2011. ETF demand is expected to reach nearly 600 metric tons—up from 450 previously—while central bank purchases should remain near historic highs.
Still, the team warns that if the Fed is forced to raise rates again, gold’s rally could falter.
After touching a record $3,439.20 in July, prices have cooled over the summer. Yet sentiment is shifting: DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach has called gold a true asset class, while some analysts suggest industrial metals may soon play catch-up.
