Are Bonds Quietly Setting Up a Storm for Stocks?

The S&P 500 is struggling ahead of Jackson Hole, dragged down by tech stocks for a fourth straight session.

Another loss on Thursday would mark its longest skid since January, though the index remains up 28% from its April low and has only slipped just over 1% in recent days.

Still, Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards warns investors are ignoring a “slow-motion crisis” in government bond markets. Long bond yields have climbed relentlessly—U.S. 30-year Treasurys now near 4.9%, the U.K. above 5.5%, and Japan close to 3.2%—while shorter-term rates have eased.

The result, Edwards says, is a rapid swing from equities looking cheap to looking “shockingly expensive,” ending the post-crisis TINA era where stocks rivalled bond yields.

Edwards, who called the dot-com crash, has been warning about a tech bubble since 2024. He notes tech now makes up 37% of U.S. market value, with the top seven companies boosting capital spending by 60% in a year, crushing cashflows.

At the same time, doubts are mounting—MIT among them—about AI’s profit potential for end users.

He cautions that while bubbles usually burst under Fed tightening, today’s combination of weak cashflows, stretched valuations, and soaring bond yields may be enough to crack investor confidence in equities.