Tech Strength Keeps the Rally Alive

Golub: Tech Strength and Solid Economy to Keep Market Rally Alive

The S&P 500 logged its 25th record close of the year Monday, shaking off pre-Fed jitters and extending its remarkable run. While some warn the rally looks stretched, Seaport Research Partners’ chief equity strategist Jonathan Golub says fundamentals—not froth—are powering stocks higher.

Golub, with portfolio strategist Patrick Palfrey, expects double-digit gains ahead. Their outlook puts the S&P 500 at 6,700 by year-end and 7,300 by late 2026, among the Street’s most bullish targets. Driving the move: resilient earnings and ongoing tech leadership.

“We’re not in a 1990s-style bubble,” Golub told MarketWatch. “As long as technology holds up and the economy stays reasonably healthy, valuations can keep rising.”

He points to firmer fundamentals—recession odds dropping to 30%, bond yields easing, tight credit spreads, and calmer volatility. “This market isn’t running on emotion. It’s grounded in real earnings and real growth,” he said.

For investors, the strategy depends on context. “Buying dips works outside recessions,” Golub noted. “But if growth flips into contraction, it turns into a dangerous play fast.”

Risks remain: a slowdown in AI or tech spending, labor market weakness, or policy missteps could threaten the rally. Still, Golub’s bottom line is clear: “The economy doesn’t have to boom. It just can’t reverse—and right now, there’s no sign of recession.”