Markets Eye Jobs & Inflation Data for Next Big Move

Markets Eye Two Big Data Points Next Month

After Wednesday’s modest pullback in the S&P 500 (-0.10%) and Nasdaq (-0.33%), investors appear ready to step back in, despite a Fed decision that some viewed as less dovish than expected.

Much of the rebound is tied to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comment that the 25 bps rate cut was “risk management.” While some saw that as a signal of fewer cuts ahead, Goldman Sachs argues Powell effectively hinted at another move in October.

From JPMorgan’s trading desk comes the call of the day: buy the dips. Led by Andrew Tyler, the team sees the potential for an “explosive” rally if the right data hits.

The two numbers to watch:

• September nonfarm payrolls (Oct. 3)
• Consumer price inflation (Oct. 15)

If hiring rebounds after two soft reports and inflation remains under control, JPMorgan expects stocks to surge, boosted further by what could be a strong Q3 earnings season. With the S&P 500 just 4% away from 7,000, they say this data could be the spark.

A rally wouldn’t just lift U.S. stocks — JPMorgan also sees upside for the dollar and emerging markets.

Even acknowledging Powell’s slightly hawkish tone, Tyler’s team insists: “Any and all dips should be bought,” with only limited risk of weakness into month- or quarter-end.

Historically, September has been a tough month, but the S&P 500 is already up 2.17% — pacing for its best September since 2025. Retail investors jumped into April’s selloff with success, and institutions may still be catching up.

For now, all eyes are on early October data — the potential trigger for JPMorgan’s bullish scenario.