S&P 500 Heads Into Historically Strong Fourth Quarter
The S&P 500 is closing out the third quarter with a 13% year-to-date gain and record highs, setting the stage for what has historically been its strongest stretch of the year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Since 1928, the index has averaged a 2.1% return per quarter, but fourth-quarter gains have been higher at 2.9%. When the S&P enters Q4 already in positive territory, average returns jump to 4.4%, with gains in more than 83% of those years.
Bespoke noted that this trend has become even more pronounced over the past 30 years.
So far, 2025 has delivered steady momentum, with the benchmark on track for a fifth straight monthly gain and a third-quarter advance of over 7%.
Investors are also monitoring broader economic signals: the Fed resumed rate cuts this month, GDP growth was revised up to 3.8% for Q2, and a possible government shutdown threatens to delay key labor market data.
Markets started the week higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.5%, and the Dow adding 0.1%, per Dow Jones Market Data.
John Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis.
DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets.
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