JPMorgan Sees Gold Doubling by 2028

Goldman Sachs Doubles Down on Its Bullish Gold Outlook

For those exhausted by the nonstop AI market debate, gold’s dramatic fall this week has offered a welcome change of topic.

After its steepest one-day drop in more than ten years on Tuesday, the focus has turned to whether the metal can recover. Goldman Sachs believes it can. The bank is sticking with its end-2026 gold target of $4,900 per ounce, expecting further upside driven by central bank and institutional investor demand.

“The pace of ETF inflows and client feedback suggests that long-term investors — including sovereign-wealth funds, central banks, pension funds, and asset managers — are preparing to raise their gold exposure as a strategic portfolio diversifier,” Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note.

That view aligns with JPMorgan’s latest forecast, where strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou predict gold prices could more than double over the next three years as investors increasingly use the metal to hedge equity risk.

According to JPMorgan, the recent selloff wasn’t sparked by retail investors leaving the market but by trend-following commodity trading advisers taking profits on gold futures — which have already risen 56% this year.

The strategists argue that much of today’s gold demand isn’t about fears of a weakening dollar — the traditional “debasement trade” — but rather a shift toward protecting portfolios against rising stock prices. Unlike in past years, investors are now buying both equities and gold while avoiding long-term bonds, a sign that gold is reclaiming its place as a preferred hedge.

By JPMorgan’s estimates, nonbank investors now hold about 2.6% of their portfolios in gold, equivalent to roughly $6.6 trillion in holdings. But if investors continue swapping bonds for gold as a hedge, that share could rise sharply.

The strategists note that during last year’s market volatility — following tariff-related announcements from President Donald Trump — long-dated bonds failed to protect investors, prompting a rethink of traditional hedging strategies. If just 2% of bond allocations shift to gold, the total allocation could climb to 4.6%, implying a near doubling in gold prices.

Factoring in rising equity values and expanding global financial assets, JPMorgan estimates gold prices may need to increase by 110% by 2028 to reach that level.

In essence, both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan see gold as entering a new golden age — not a relic of the past, but a modern hedge for an equity-driven era, with powerful tailwinds from central banks, institutions, and retail investors alike.