Nvidia Stays on Top as AI Budgets Explode

Nvidia Rides Big Tech’s AI Spending Wave

The AI race among Big Tech giants is intensifying — and Nvidia looks like the biggest winner.

After Amazon’s strong cloud results and upbeat guidance last week, Wall Street’s attention shifted to Nvidia, which hasn’t even reported earnings yet. The surge in AI spending from Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft points to a flood of demand for Nvidia’s chips and computing power.

“Companies are going to keep spending on compute,” said Matt Stucky of Northwestern Mutual. “And Nvidia is the best supplier in the market right now.”

Big Tech Opens the Wallet

Meta now expects to spend $70–72 billion on capital projects this year, nearly double its 2023 total. Amazon plans to invest $125 billion, while Alphabet lifted its capex target to $92 billion. Microsoft, meanwhile, is forecasting even faster spending growth than last year’s already massive 58% jump.

All those billions are flowing into AI infrastructure — and straight toward Nvidia’s ecosystem. CEO Jensen Huang recently hinted that analysts are underestimating the company’s growth potential by about $100 billion, suggesting Nvidia could generate well over $300 billion in data-center revenue next year.

Bubble or Boom?

With AI investments skyrocketing, some on Wall Street are questioning if we’re in a bubble. The main concern is whether companies like OpenAI can monetize their technologies fast enough to justify the spending.

“For every dollar OpenAI takes in, $2 goes out the door,” Stucky noted. Still, confidence remains high — Oracle’s recent bond sale to fund OpenAI infrastructure was heavily oversubscribed, signaling continued investor optimism.

Market Perception Shifts

While Nvidia remains the core beneficiary, Amazon’s resurgence is reshaping investor sentiment. Its cloud business accelerated to over 20% growth in Q3, reinforcing its leadership in AI infrastructure.

Investors seem more comfortable with heavy AI budgets at Amazon and Alphabet than at Meta, given that the hyperscalers can directly monetize compute services. Meta, on the other hand, relies on advertising and longer-term AI ambitions that may take years to pay off.

As Mizuho’s Jordan Klein put it, many investors may “look elsewhere for near-term catalysts,” but Nvidia and the major cloud providers still stand at the center of the AI gold rush.