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Analyzing the Odds: Will the Stock Market Crash?

The probability of a stock market crash on par with the 1987 event in the upcoming months seems to be significantly exaggerated, even as contrarians find reasons to smile. While the fear of a crash is justified due to the buzz about a potential market bubble, the reality is that the likelihood of a crash similar to 1987 is quite low—just 0.33%. We can assess the general sentiment through a survey conducted by Robert Shiller of Yale University, where participants indicate the chances of a crash with less than a 10% probability within six months. The latest survey indicates that 33.9% of respondents fall into this category, revealing that 66.1% perceive the risk as higher than 10%. This perception has been on an upward trend, with a rise from 64% in 2015 to 74% today in the 24-month moving average, slightly below last year’s peak of 77%. The real probabilities have been studied by Xavier Gabaix of Harvard University and researchers from Boston University’s Center for Polymer Studies, revealing a formula predicting crash frequencies. When applying this to the one-day 22.6% decline on Black Monday in 1987, the probability of such an event is 0.33%. The heightened concerns among investors have roots in the occurrence of two bear markets in rapid succession—early 2020 and 2022. This occurrence is rare and has cast a shadow on long-term investor outlooks. Psychological studies by Camelia Kuhnen from the University of North Carolina underscore how losses trigger more pessimism compared to the optimism generated by gains. This tendency, termed the “pessimism bias,” persists even when markets recover well. Shiller’s crash-confidence index, potentially a contrarian indicator, has shown that higher worries about a crash correlate with better market performance over one-, three-, and five-year periods. While the crash-confidence index may not predict short-term market moves, its strength lies in forecasting robust market performance over the span of several years. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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The Dark Side of Buybacks: Examining Wealth Inequality and Innovation Suppression

“Reevaluating Stock Buybacks: A Force behind Wealth Inequality and Innovation Suppression?” An ongoing debate questions the role of stock buybacks in perpetuating wealth inequality and stifling innovation within the U.S. economy. Should there be a definitive ban on these practices, especially when executed as open-market repurchases? According to William Lazonick, an esteetock marketmed figure hailing from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and also the President of the Academic-Industry Research Network, the answer is a resounding “yes.” Lazonick, a long-standing critic of corporate stock buybacks, recently unveiled his book “Investing in Innovation: Confronting Predatory Value Extraction in the U.S. Corporation,” in which he contends that these buybacks form a critical component of what he labels as “predatory value extraction.” The concept of predatory value extraction centers on the idea that senior executives, Wall Street financiers, and hedge fund managers manage to extract a disproportionately larger amount of value from corporations where they hold shares, in comparison to their actual contributions to value creation within those organizations. However, the ramifications extend beyond this. These stock buybacks have inadvertently rendered American corporations more susceptible to foreign competitors, particularly in sectors critical to national security and productivity, like aviation, communications, semiconductors, and alternative energy. This vulnerability stems from businesses opting to allocate profits to buybacks instead of investing in innovation and infrastructure. As a result, these companies are compelled to procure essential technologies from foreign rivals, predominantly in Asia. Before the widespread adoption of buybacks in the 1980s, companies typically reinvested the bulk of their profits to foster growth or reward employees for their contributions to value creation. This narrative shifted drastically as buybacks gained momentum, becoming a popular strategy for elevating share prices by reducing the number of outstanding shares. Between 2012 and 2021, the 474 firms listed in the S&P 500 (as of January 2022) channeled a staggering $5.7 trillion into the stock market through buybacks, equating to 55% of their collective net income. Additionally, another $4.2 trillion was distributed as dividends, consuming an additional 41% of net income. While dividends offer benefits to all shareholders, buybacks predominantly benefit those selling shares, including senior managers whose compensation often involves stock holdings and hedge fund managers aiming to capitalize on market timing. Lazonick’s book offers various examples illustrating the shift from a strategy focused on “retain and invest” to “dominate and distribute,” and its consequences for the workforce. The table below highlights the top 20 purchasers of their own stock from 2010 to 2019, along with distributions made during pandemic years. Eleven companies followed the “dominate and distribute” approach before the pandemic, encompassing major players like Apple, Oracle, Microsoft, Cisco, Walmart, Intel, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson, Amgen, Qualcomm, and Gilead. These companies utilized profits from their commanding market positions to bolster stock prices. On the other hand, seven firms including Exxon Mobil, IBM, Procter & Gamble, General Electric, Merck, McDonald’s, and Boeing pursued a “downsize and distribute” strategy, allocating funds to shareholders as they downsized their workforces. The remaining two, Pfizer and Disney, ceased buybacks in 2019 to return to a “retain and invest” strategy. Lazonick underscores that companies such as Disney, Home Depot, McDonald’s, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart employ a significant number of low-wage workers. These workers could potentially benefit from substantial pay raises funded by capital allocated to buybacks. Elevating wages and benefits for low-paid workers at profitable firms can have a ripple effect, boosting incomes across the broader economy. Even the pharmaceutical sector, represented by companies like Amgen, Gilead Sciences, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and Pfizer, faces scrutiny. Despite advocating for high drug prices to support research and development, these firms distributed a significant 110% of their net income to shareholders and share sellers between 2012 and 2021. Buybacks alone accounted for 55% of net income, surpassing other sectors. Lazonick also highlights the technology sector, using Cisco Systems as an example of a company favoring buybacks over investment in learning that fuels innovative communication-infrastructure products. Since 2001, Cisco’s management has allocated a staggering $159.7 billion to buybacks, equivalent to 93% of net income. Concurrently, the U.S. has fallen behind global competitors in areas like 5G and the Internet of Things. Apple’s trajectory follows a similar narrative. Initially relying on Samsung Electronics to fabricate chips for iPhones, Apple shifted its outsourcing to TSMC, catalyzing the latter’s ascent to prominence in advanced nanometer chip fabrication. According to Lazonick, five steps are crucial to curbing predatory value extraction: The implications are substantial. An Oxfam report revealed that by 2022, inflation had eroded the earnings value for 32% of the U.S. labor force, leaving them with hourly wages of $15 or less. In his 2022 State of the Union address, President Joe Biden proposed a 4% tax on buybacks. However, Lazonick argues that this is insufficient. If the administration opts for taxation instead of a ban, Lazonick suggests a 40% surcharge, accompanied by a prominent message on corporate repurchasers’ websites: “STOCK BUYBACKS DESTROY THE MIDDLE CLASS.” John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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Market News

Nasdaq Futures React to Nvidia Earnings with a Jump; Dow Futures Experience Dip

In the early hours of Thursday, U.S. stock index futures demonstrated a positive trend, led by Nasdaq futures, as Nvidia’s exceptional quarterly earnings performance exceeded high expectations. In contrast, Dow futures experienced a slight decline due to a drop in Boeing shares. Here’s a snapshot of the current stock-index futures trading: In the trading session of the previous day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a gain of 184 points, marking a 0.54% increase to reach 34,473. The S&P 500 saw a rise of 48 points, translating to a 1.1% increase and reaching 4436. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite gained 215 points, presenting a notable 1.59% surge and reaching 13,721. Key market dynamics include: With the Jackson Hole central bankers’ economic policy symposium commencing on Thursday, the focal point remains on the upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. In addition, investors were privy to a fresh batch of U.S. economic data on Thursday, including weekly jobless benefit claims numbers. This data revealed a decline of 10,000 claims, reaching a three-week low of 230,000, providing further evidence of a robust labor market. Data on durable-goods orders for July indicated a 0.5% increase, excluding specific sectors like transportation and autos. Notable companies in focus include: John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

U.S. Stock Futures Inch Upward as Bond Yields Dip; Nvidia Earnings Awaited

On Wednesday, U.S. stock futures showed a slight upward movement, coinciding with a decline in bond yields. All eyes were on Nvidia Corp. as investors eagerly awaited the company’s earnings report. Nvidia, a leading player in the artificial intelligence software realm, was scheduled to release its results after the market’s closing. Key Highlights: Market Dynamics: The uptick in stock futures coincided with a reduction in bond yields, both in Europe and the U.S. This was triggered by news of a larger-than-expected contraction in eurozone economic activity, leading to a 33-month low. However, the day’s primary focus was on Nvidia’s (NVDA, -2.77%) earnings outcome, eagerly anticipated after the market’s close. With Nvidia’s shares having surged by 212% in the current year, in contrast to the S&P 500’s gain of 14.3%, the company epitomized the enthusiasm surrounding major tech stocks and the excitement around artificial intelligence, both of which had been instrumental in driving up equity indices for much of 2023. The reception of Nvidia’s financial results and projections was expected to significantly shape the short-term market sentiment. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, commented, “Investors will focus on whether Nvidia’s Q2 sales meet the $11 billion estimate. Anything less than absolutely fantastic could trigger a sharp downside correction in Nvidia’s stock price which rallied 345% since the October dip.” Traders were anticipating a potential 10% movement in Nvidia’s shares for the remainder of the week, as indicated by the pricing of the company’s stock options. Susannah Streeter, Head of Money and Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted, “A jolt [of] volatility is set to be sparked by the chip giant’s numbers and outlook.” Economic Updates and Corporate Focus: The day’s U.S. economic updates included the S&P services and manufacturing PMIs for August, set for release at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, followed by the July new home sales report at 10 a.m. Key Companies in the Limelight: John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Anticipating a U.S. Stock Rebound This Week Amidst Ongoing Summer Selloff, Analysts Caution

While there’s a possibility of a short-lived rebound in U.S. stocks this week, experts caution against viewing it as the end of the ongoing late-summer selloff. Instead, analysts suggest that any potential bounce would likely act as a brief reprieve before the S&P 500 SPX resumes its downward trajectory towards the key support level of 4,200, according to technical analysts. Various technical strategists have shared research insights with MarketWatch, pointing out that multiple indicators indicate that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 have entered the territory of being “oversold.” For instance, recent data indicates that only 15% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 20-day moving average, a metric highlighted by experts such as Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG and Jeffrey deGraaf from Renaissance Macro. The chart below, courtesy of deGraaf and his team, illustrates this point: Both Krinsky and deGraaf have pointed to the 10-day U.S. equity put-call ratio, which recently surged to its highest level in 2023. This uptick signifies a heightened preference for put options, which typically yield returns when stock prices decline. However, Krinsky advised his clients to keep their focus on the bigger picture, suggesting that the ongoing selloff might only be halfway through. Krinsky projected that any potential rebound might taper off around the 4,450 level, while technical analysts have identified 4,200 on the S&P 500 as a strong long-term support level. Notably, 4,200 had served as a notable resistance point for stocks for over half a year. “While there are factors suggesting short-term relief, we believe the selloff is only about halfway through,” noted Krinsky. Others in the market share a similar viewpoint, including Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. She predicts that the S&P 500 might stabilize just below 4,200, potentially erasing a significant portion of the year-to-date gains. Data from FactSet reveals that the S&P 500 had risen by nearly 20% for the year at its peak last month. Another noteworthy development is the limited spread between Treasury yields and corporate bond yields. This distinctive aspect distinguishes the current selloff from previous instances when stocks plummeted to their yearly lows, such as in October. Nick Colas of DataTrek highlighted in a recent research note that the spreads for corporate bonds, at 1.26 percentage points over Treasurys for investment-grade corporates and 3.95 points for high-yield bonds, remain “remarkably low.” This suggests that investors are potentially reassessing equity valuations that many deem to be overextended, based on expectations for corporate earnings. As of late July, the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 stood at 19.4, surpassing the five-year average of 18.6 and the 10-year average of 17.4, according to FactSet data. The index’s recent decline has brought it to a more reasonable level of 18.6, aligning with its five-year average. “The disparity this month must be attributed to something unique to stocks, which is equity valuations,” observed Colas. While investors remain watchful of corporate bond spreads, concerns are amplified alongside the rise of long-dated Treasury yields. Any sign of their upward movement could indicate bond investors’ apprehensions about rising borrowing costs impacting corporate cash flows and profits. Despite these uncertainties, U.S. stocks concluded Monday with mostly positive results. The Nasdaq Composite COMP snapped a four-day losing streak, surging by 1.6% to 13,497.59 points. The S&P 500 registered a 0.7% increase to 4,399.77 points. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA experienced a slight decline of 0.1% to 34,463.69 points. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq endured three consecutive weeks of decline. The upcoming week presents an array of potential risks for stocks, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and an earnings report from market standout Nvidia Corp. NVDA, +8.47%. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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Market News

S&P 500’s Monthly Slide: 2023’s Deepest Loss Looms as Yields Continue to Rise

Investors may be confronted with the scenario where the Federal Reserve decides to keep interest rates elevated for an extended duration. As a result, there has been a notable increase in Treasury yields, leading to the S&P 500 index enduring its most substantial monthly drop in 2023. During a phone interview, Scott Chronert, an equity strategist at Citigroup, clarified that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note exceeded the trading range of 3.5% – 4% in August. This rise had a negative impact on stock market valuations, as it went against the established pattern that had been observed throughout the year. This month, investors in the American stock market are witnessing a downturn in their investments as they anxiously await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming, which is planned for Friday. Furthermore, they are dealing with a rise in yields throughout August and monitoring the possible consequences of China’s economic difficulties, as it is the second largest economy globally. Investors were taken aback this month when the return on the 10-year treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, which had been increasing, reached its highest point since 2007 despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to gradually raise interest rates due to the decreasing inflation in the United States. During a phone interview, Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock and head of the firm’s global allocation investment team, pointed out the irony of interest rates going up while inflation decreased considerably in the last three and six months, as indicated by the moving averages of the consumer-price index. Based on data from Dow Jones Market Data, the U.S. stock market ended the week with mostly negative results. The S&P 500 index reported its third consecutive week of losses and is currently down by 4.8% in the month of August. This represents the largest monthly decline for the index since December, according to data provided by FactSet. Both the Nasdaq Composite COMP and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA concluded the week on a negative note on Friday. Similar to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, famous for its emphasis on technology stocks, saw three consecutive weeks of decline. Rieder pointed out that investors in the stock market are concerned that the strong condition of the American economy could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy even more. This worry, combined with an increase in the amount of U.S. Treasurys being circulated, appears to be adversely affecting the stock market. Rieder stated that there is a significant issuance of Treasury bills, causing a decrease in available funds, which he believes is starting to show some effects. These Treasury bills are short-term U.S. government debt that matures within a few months and have been yielding more than 5% recently. Scott Wren, a senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, mentioned in a telephone conversation that his company made the decision to withdraw a portion of their funds from the stock market earlier this year. Specifically, they decreased their investments in technology stocks and chose to invest in Treasury bills instead. This strategic move allows them to take advantage of opportunities when the stock market undergoes declines. Wells Fargo has a projection that the S&P 500 index will achieve a value of 4,100 by the conclusion of 2023. Dow Jones Market Data reports that the S&P 500 closed on Friday at 4,369.71, which indicates a decline of 8.9% from its peak closing level in January 2022. Wren stated that the Federal Reserve has yet to complete its efforts to increase interest rates in order to manage ongoing core inflation. During the Jackson Hole meeting, Chair Jerome Powell may take this chance to convey to the market that the central bank is presently not contemplating reducing rates. Wren suggests that Powell might continue to emphasize a firm position by repeating the idea that the Federal Reserve has the ability to raise its benchmark rate as a means to combat inflation and achieve its goal of 2%. Chair Powell has been scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 25. In a telephone interview, David Kelly, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist, remarked that the current state of the U.S. economy is very strong. He also conveyed his confidence that a significant reduction in inflation can occur without causing a recession. Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve’s continuous increase in interest rates, which were previously raised to curb high inflation, could possibly cause a decline in the economy. Kelly states that in the absence of notable economic issues, it is improbable for interest rates to diminish by the end of this year. But Kelly is anticipating that the Federal Reserve could potentially begin a gradual reduction of interest rates in the spring of 2024, given that inflation continues to decrease and eventually reaches 2%. He pointed out that if the labor market starts exhibiting indications of an imminent economic decline, such as consistent monthly decreases in nonfarm payroll employment reports, the central bank would probably accelerate the pace at which they lower interest rates. Currently, 10-year Treasury yields have been consistently rising for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak since March. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the yields closed at 4.251% on Friday. However, they slightly decreased on Friday after reaching their highest level since November 2007 on August 17, as reported at 3 p.m. Eastern Time. Rieder from BlackRock explains that the rise in interest rates can be credited to various reasons. These encompass the greater accessibility of U.S. government debt, the impact of the Bank of Japan modifying its yield-curve control to permit its own 10-year yields to increase, and the appeal of Treasury bills which offer a favorable rate of approximately 5.5% with no credit or duration risks. Kelly mentioned that while the economy of the United States is flourishing, China’s economy is facing challenges. The property sector in China is currently encountering

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