Market News

Banks Push Commodities as Fed Drama Stirs Inflation Risks The Federal Reserve’s independence is under pressure, and markets are bracing for the fallout. Trump’s pick for Fed governor, Stephen Miran, heads to a Senate hearing Thursday, while a judge may soon decide whether Governor Lisa Cook can keep her seat after Trump tried to oust her online. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs say the political fight is already shaping asset flows. JPMorgan notes rising short bets on long-term Treasurys—signaling inflation fears—and a tilt toward value stocks. In commodities, investors are eyeing gains in copper and oil if the Fed eases too much, while gold has become the clearest hedge against political interference, with futures positioning spiking. Goldman warns that if Fed independence is eroded, investors could face higher inflation, rising yields, weaker equities, and even threats to the dollar’s reserve status. In that scenario, gold stands apart as a store of value that doesn’t rely on trust in institutions. The bank projects gold could surge past $4,000 by 2026, with upside toward $4,500—or even $5,000 if just 1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings shift into the metal. With gold futures already topping $3,600 this week, Goldman calls bullion its strongest bet in the commodities space. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Ed Yardeni: Wealth Effect Will Fuel Even More Growth The S&P 500 just logged its 20th record close of the year, rising 0.32%. Nvidia’s earnings were digested without much drama, effectively wrapping up a supportive second-quarter earnings season. Markets are also leaning on hopes for easier monetary policy. Ahead of Friday’s PCE inflation release, futures are pricing in an 85% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research argues that cheaper borrowing costs will push stocks higher as valuation multiples expand — but warns the Fed risks stimulating an economy that doesn’t really need it. He points to several indicators backing that view: Yardeni notes many firms are still absorbing costs through productivity gains, but more may soon pass them to consumers. The bigger story, however, is the wealth effect. With stocks at record highs, Americans are richer — and that’s boosting spending. Gallup data show 62% of Americans owned stocks at the end of 2024, the highest since 2008. U.S. households held $46.7 trillion in equities and mutual funds in Q1, with baby boomers controlling 54% of it. With a combined net worth exceeding $82 trillion, they’re set to spend and pass down unprecedented wealth. “The bull market is having a significant positive wealth effect on consumers who own equities, more than offsetting the drag from rising credit delinquencies,” Yardeni says. And as the market climbs, so does consumer wealth — continuing to fuel growth in an economy that arguably doesn’t need the extra boost. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Nvidia shares drop on China concerns despite strong earnings Nvidia shares fell more than 5% in after-hours trading Thursday after the chipmaker highlighted ongoing challenges in China, despite reporting another quarter of blockbuster growth. The stock ended the regular session flat at US$181.60, then slid to US$172.45 following earnings. For the quarter ended July 27, revenue surged 56% to US$46.7 billion, but sales from China, including Hong Kong, dropped 24% to US$2.8 billion. Nvidia disclosed it sold no H20 chips — processors designed to comply with US export restrictions — during the period. The product had generated US$4.6 billion in the prior quarter. The pause came as Washington pressed for a 15% revenue cut without formal regulation, while Beijing questioned whether the chips contained “built-in vulnerabilities.” Nvidia denied its GPUs have back doors. CEO Jensen Huang stressed China remains a priority, estimating it could be a US$50 billion market this year and praising the country’s open-source AI models, including DeepSeek, Alibaba’s Qwen, and Moonshot AI’s Kimi. Still, US-China tensions loom large. Analysts at Saxo warned that export restrictions could benefit domestic rivals, especially as China’s Semiconductor Index hit a record high this week. Local firms such as Cambricon Technologies, which posted a 4,348% jump in first-half revenue, and foundry SMIC are gaining momentum. China is also stepping up chip production, with new state guidelines to boost AI capacity and reported plans to triple AI processor output next year. Despite the headwinds, Wall Street remains upbeat. Wedbush Securities called the pullback a “buying opportunity,” projecting Nvidia’s market value — currently US$4.4 trillion, the highest globally — could reach US$5 trillion by 2026. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com