Market News

Markets Slip as Trump Threatens New Tariffs Ahead of Deadline U.S. equity futures declined and the dollar weakened after President Trump signaled a potential escalation in trade tensions, saying his administration may begin sending letters to trading partners outlining new unilateral tariffs as early as Friday. “We’re probably going to start sending some letters out tomorrow—maybe 10 a day—to various countries explaining what they’ll have to pay to do business with the U.S.,” Trump told reporters Thursday, just days ahead of the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations. Markets had been rallying, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high Thursday after a holiday-shortened session, up 26% from its April low. The rally was partly fueled by optimism that Trump had backed off his aggressive April 2 tariff proposal, which had pushed import duties to levels not seen in over a century. But Trump’s latest remarks suggest that few, if any, trade deals will be reached before the deadline, renewing fears of heightened protectionism. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted Trump floated tariffs between 10% and as high as 60–70%, potentially taking effect on August 1. “That kind of range has major economic implications depending on the country,” Reid said. Though U.S. equity and bond markets are closed for Independence Day, futures are still trading. The E-mini S&P 500 fell 0.6% early Friday, as investors appeared to shrug off the passage of the GOP’s sweeping tax-cut bill. The dollar also weakened, down 0.4% against the yen and 0.2% versus the euro. Globally, markets were under pressure, particularly in economies more vulnerable to U.S. trade penalties. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 2%, Germany’s DAX slipped 0.8%, and France’s CAC 40 fell 1% by midday in Europe. “Risk appetite is fading fast,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “Trump appears to have walked away from negotiations, choosing instead to play hardball with trade partners.” Concerns over slowing global trade hit commodities, with copper futures falling 1.7% and oil down 1.3%. “Optimism is fading fast as the U.S. tariff deadline approaches,” said Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown. “The signs point to steeper and broader tariffs than expected.” Gold rose 0.2% to around $3,350 an ounce, while bitcoin slipped 0.5% amid the broader risk-off sentiment. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Bullish Signal: Golden Cross Points to More Market Gains Ahead The S&P 500 is kicking off the second half of 2025 on a strong note, flashing a bullish technical signal for the first time in more than two years. On Tuesday, the index formed a golden cross, where the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day average—a widely followed momentum indicator that often signals a strong uptrend. The last golden cross for the S&P 500 appeared in February 2023. Since then, the index has climbed over 48%, according to FactSet. This latest signal adds to a series of bullish developments, including a Zweig Breadth Thrust back in April—a rare indicator with a flawless track record of forecasting gains since 1982. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said the golden cross, combined with broadening market participation, points to a “healthy setup” for the second half of the year. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2025 around 6,600. Historical data backs him up. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has posted positive one-year returns 71% of the time following a golden cross, averaging over 10%. More recent signals have been even stronger, with the past 20 crosses delivering average gains of 13% and an 85% success rate. This time around, the golden cross comes as the S&P hovers just below Monday’s record close, adding momentum to a market already pushing all-time highs. Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments said golden crosses have been far more reliable than death crosses, which occur when the 50-day average dips below the 200-day. The most recent death cross happened back in April—after much of the downturn had already played out. Other major indexes and stocks are also flashing green lights. The Nasdaq Composite saw a golden cross on Monday, and Nvidia (NVDA) joined in on Friday, signaling continued strength in the AI-driven tech sector. Meanwhile, small- and mid-cap stocks have started to rise—another sign that the rally is broadening. Still, not all signs are rosy. Some indicators, like the gold-platinum price ratio, have turned bearish, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback. On Tuesday, markets were mixed: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped modestly after recent highs, while the Dow and Russell 2000 moved higher. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Why Apple Is the Tech Stock to Watch This July, According to Fundstrat’s Mark Newton Following two record-breaking sessions for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, markets are easing into the new quarter with signs of weakness. It’s a short, holiday-trimmed week, and investor fatigue is understandable amid political distractions like Trump’s tax and spending bill making its way through the Senate. But historically, July has been a strong month for stocks in post-election years — and Fundstrat’s head of technical strategy, Mark Newton, sees that pattern possibly repeating. In a new client note, Newton says the rally could continue into July before cooling in August. He sees the market broadening, with breakouts in the Dow and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) adding confirmation. One stock he’s watching closely: Apple (AAPL). Apple, down 18% year-to-date, has underperformed major tech peers — with only Tesla faring worse. Investors have been wary over weak AI progress and trade tensions. But Newton flags a potential shift. On Monday, Apple shares jumped over 2%, breaking out of a month-long slump and closing at their highest level since mid-May. The bounce followed reports that Apple may adopt third-party AI tools for a new version of Siri, signaling a possible strategy pivot away from its in-house development — something Newton calls a “significant reversal.” While it’s just one day of gains, Newton believes this move could be meaningful. Apple needs to rise above $214 to confirm a stronger rally, he says. So far, it hasn’t participated much in the S&P 500’s 27% rally since April. Meanwhile, broader tech looks poised to test all-time highs. Newton points to bullish signs in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF (RSPT), which has rebounded from key 2024 support levels. His forecast: tech may outperform through August, face resistance in September, then mount another leg higher in Q4. As for Apple, Newton says its performance in July could determine whether tech’s recent momentum continues. “Any strength from Apple here could extend tech’s lead,” Newton concludes. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Stocks May Already Be Pricing In More Fed Rate Cuts The S&P 500 is heading into the second half of 2025 near record highs—up nearly 24% from its mid-April low. But with summer often bringing volatility, many investors are wondering: is this rally justified? Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Mike Wilson says yes. In a note Monday, he laid out three reasons why he remains bullish over the next 6 to 12 months. 1. Stronger Earnings Momentum Wilson highlights a major shift in earnings sentiment. Forecasts for S&P 500 company profits have improved sharply as concerns over the Trump-era trade war fade. More importantly, optimism is expanding beyond just Big Tech. A key metric, earnings revision breadth (ERB), has risen from -25% in mid-April to -5%. Historically, such turnarounds have preceded strong market gains. Wilson notes that this earnings growth is expected to outpace economic growth, thanks to a weaker dollar and pro-business tax incentives in the Trump administration’s proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill.” 2. The Market Is Getting Ahead of the Fed Wilson believes the Fed could cut interest rates seven times in 2026, as unemployment becomes more pressing than inflation. And he says the market is already moving in anticipation of that pivot. “Stocks won’t wait for a clear signal from the Fed—they’re already pricing in easier policy,” he writes. That said, the biggest threat to this outlook would be a sharp rise in unemployment and weak jobs data—though that’s not Morgan Stanley’s base-case scenario. 3. Resilience in the Face of Risks Stocks are also showing their usual ability to absorb geopolitical shocks. As tensions between Israel and Iran cool, oil prices have eased, reducing fears of an energy-driven slowdown. Wilson adds that the proposed ‘revenge tax’—which had threatened to slow investment—is likely to be dropped from the final version of the “Big, Beautiful Bill.” Lastly, the term premium on U.S. Treasurys has declined in recent weeks, signaling reduced investor anxiety about the government’s fiscal position. With 10-year yields holding below 4.5%, Wilson sees diminished interest rate risk for now. He maintains a 12-month S&P 500 target of 6,500. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com