market forecast Archives – Page 3 of 3

U.S. Stock Futures Inch Upward as Bond Yields Dip; Nvidia Earnings Awaited

John Paul / August 23, 2023

On Wednesday, U.S. stock futures showed a slight upward movement, coinciding with a decline in bond yields. All eyes were on Nvidia Corp. as investors eagerly awaited the company’s earnings report. Nvidia, a leading player in the artificial intelligence software realm, was scheduled to release its results after the market’s closing. Key Highlights: Market Dynamics: The uptick in stock futures coincided with a reduction in bond yields, both in Europe and the U.S. This was triggered by news of a larger-than-expected contraction in eurozone economic activity, leading to a 33-month low. However, the day’s primary focus was on Nvidia’s (NVDA, -2.77%) earnings outcome, eagerly anticipated after the market’s close. With Nvidia’s shares having surged by 212% in the current year, in contrast to the S&P 500’s gain of 14.3%, the company epitomized the enthusiasm surrounding major tech stocks and the excitement around artificial intelligence, both of which had been instrumental in driving up equity indices for much of 2023. The reception of Nvidia’s financial results and projections was expected to significantly shape the short-term market sentiment. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, commented, “Investors will focus on whether Nvidia’s Q2 sales meet the $11 billion estimate. Anything less than absolutely fantastic could trigger a sharp downside correction in Nvidia’s stock price which rallied 345% since the October dip.” Traders were anticipating a potential 10% movement in Nvidia’s shares for the remainder of the week, as indicated by the pricing of the company’s stock options. Susannah Streeter, Head of Money and Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted, “A jolt [of] volatility is set to be sparked by the chip giant’s numbers and outlook.” Economic Updates and Corporate Focus: The day’s U.S. economic updates included the S&P services and manufacturing PMIs for August, set for release at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, followed by the July new home sales report at 10 a.m. Key Companies in the Limelight: John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

S&P 500 Inches Closer to Bear-Market Exit: What Investors Need to Know

John Paul / June 3, 2023

The S&P 500 is approaching its exit from bear-market territory, prompting questions about whether the rally in Big Tech stocks will finally extend to the broader market. The large-cap benchmark has been experiencing its longest stretch in bear territory since 1948. However, a wide stock-market rally on Friday brought the S&P 500 close to ending this run. Investors are eager to determine if this move is genuine or simply a false alarm. On Friday, the S&P 500 SPX increased by 1.5% to close at its highest level since August 18, 2022. A close above 4,292.48 would signify a 20% rally from the bear-market closing low of 3,577.03 set on October 12, 2022, marking the end of the bear market by a widely accepted definition. The rally was attributed to an unexpectedly strong May jobs report, a resolution of the debt-ceiling deal standoff, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Including Friday, the S&P 500 had been in bear-market territory for 244 trading days, the longest stretch since one that ended on May 15, 1948, which lasted 484 trading days. Historically, the average bear market has lasted 142 trading days. Investor optimism was fueled by the anticipated debt-ceiling deal becoming law and the increasing unemployment rate revealed in the Employment Situation Report, according to José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers. This has led to bets on a Fed pause at its June 14 meeting, with 72% odds favoring that outcome. The S&P 500 has risen 11.5% year-to-date, with a significant portion of total returns driven by a few large-cap technology firms like NVIDIA Corp., Alphabet Inc., and Apple Inc. However, excluding these big names, the index is flat for the year. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 is outperforming its equal-weighted counterpart, which has declined by 1% year-to-date, by over 10 percentage points in 2023. This is the largest margin of outperformance year to date on record, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, stated that the widespread stock-market rally on Friday is precisely what the market needs, as many analysts consider a narrow market leadership to be a missing piece of the recovery puzzle. The strong surge in tech stocks that has been driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite is finally extending to the broader market on Friday, as demonstrated by the jump in the Russell 2000, the small-cap index. This indicates an overall positive underpinning for the market. Despite this, caution is advised, as not all bear exits lead to lasting bull markets. The S&P 500 has also experienced false bear-market exits, albeit less frequently than the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, as noted by Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, in a May note. The possibility of such false exits explains why there is far from a universal embrace of the 20% rule. Some analysts argue that a new bull market does not begin until the previous high is surpassed, while others use more complex criteria. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

DayTradeToWin Review

Market Prediction: Early January 2021 Sell-Off Expected

John Paul / December 31, 2020

In the day trading industry, predictions are a dime a million. So many people make predictions all the time and they readily point out predictions that come true. That is not so much the problem. The problem is that when many predictions are made, there are some that will likely be correct and some that are not. If you do not point out those that are incorrect, then you do not have a good track record. Wouldn’t you say that’s true? John Paul, founder of DayTradeToWin.com, makes relatively few predictions about what he expects to occur in the markets. Just about every year, he releases a January Effect video that discusses what the overall trend of the E-mini S&P 500 will be for the year. You can go back and look for yourself – they January Effect has been an accurate predictor. Again in 2020, we see the year closing at a much higher value than it opened, which is exactly what the January Effect predicted. And this is occurring despite the crash that happened earlier in the year and all of the controversies and huge impacts coronavirus and the like have had in 2020. So, when John Paul comes out and makes a prediction about what to expect in 2021, like he has done recently, it may be worth your while to listen. This is not common. Basically, he says that you should be on the lookout for a big sell-off in early January 2021. He does not say where he is getting his information from. Whether or not he has inside connections or it is his years of analysis and trading, that is left up for your speculation. Rather, his prediction and subsequent videos focus on what YOU can do as a trader. He wants you to make the most out of this activity – that is, to find intraday winners during a sell-off. Watch the video to learn more. If and when a sell-off occurs, it should be recognized as such in the headlines. After all, the Oxford dictionary defines a “sell-off” as a “sale of assets, typically at a low price, carried out in order to dispose of them rather than as normal trade.” The North American Oxford definition is, “a sale of shares, bonds, or commodities, especially one that causes a fall in price.” Indeed, there are plenty of reasons for pundits to point to and say, “Yes, here is the reason for the sell-off.” As price action traders, we do not care about pundits. We care about price action, which means identifying opportunities using our knowledge of price action patterns and software. For instance, if the Atlas Line or Trade Scalper are in use during a sell-off, those signals in the “sell direction” (i.e. short) are seen as having greater importance. In effect, the sell-off serves to help validate those short signals. If you are serious about learning to day trade or want trading signals for the anticipated January 2021 sell-off, now is the time to take action. The DayTradeToWin.com website has multiple options, including a complete coaching program that lasts eight weeks. If we see the Dow drop significantly, for example, we should expect the S&P, and therefore the E-mini S&P, to drop as well. The sell-off may not occur right out of the gate (i.e. right when the market opens). You’ll have to let price prove to you that a sell-off is occurring. Then at that point, look for short trades. This could be later morning or early afternoon. The news may not identify the sell-off as a sell-off right away, so it’s important to gauge the price activity for yourself. Compare with recent bearish trends and see what would be a significant change. What price level must be approached to qualify? Refer to John Paul’s market analysis. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com