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Bubble Talk Returns as Bulls Eye Another Big Run The market paused briefly after another record high this week — but bullish confidence is still running hot. Despite sky-high valuations, investors are betting that the upcoming third-quarter earnings season will justify their optimism. Even Washington’s political chaos isn’t shaking sentiment. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says investors see through the U.S. government shutdown “noise,” expecting any slowdown to make the Federal Reserve more dovish. Add the typical year-end rally, as fund managers chase performance and load up on winning stocks, and the stage seems set for another leg higher. Lee still sees the S&P 500 reaching 7,000 by year-end. But a familiar warning is back: talk of a market melt-up. Billionaire trader Paul Tudor Jones compared today’s setup to late 1999, when the Nasdaq doubled in six months before the dotcom bubble burst. “All the ingredients are in place… you have to position yourself like it’s October 1999,” Jones told CNBC. That remark caught attention — especially from traders who believe they can ride the rally and get out before it pops. The Nasdaq is already up 19% this year. Yet Matthew Maley of Miller Tabak says investors shouldn’t expect a straight climb. “Even during that 1999 melt-up, the Nasdaq saw multiple 13–14% pullbacks before peaking,” he noted. Maley warns that similar volatility could strike again as earnings season heats up and fresh data flood in once the government reopens. His takeaway: even if Jones is right and another surge is coming, the ride could be far bumpier than most traders think. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Competition Could Be the Biggest Threat to the AI Tech Boom Stocks are eyeing a rebound after Tuesday’s tech-driven selloff sparked by mounting concerns over AI spending — fears that even found their way into a recent Bank of England report. But is this the start of a bubble, or just another pause in a powerful rally? Goldman Sachs strategists don’t see a bursting bubble just yet. In a note led by chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer, they argue that today’s AI boom differs sharply from past speculative frenzies. “Bubbles form when stock prices and valuations soar far beyond the future cash flows companies can realistically deliver,” Oppenheimer explained. “This time, much of the growth in leading tech names is grounded in strong fundamentals and real profit expansion — not hype.” Goldman points out several distinctions from the dot-com era: Still, the firm warns that competition could emerge as the biggest challenge to the AI narrative. “The AI space is currently dominated by a few incumbents,” Goldman noted. “But every major innovation cycle invites new players — just as none of the S&P 500’s top 10 companies from 1985 stayed in the top 10 by 2020.” That influx of competitors could reshape the sector, creating new winners while pressuring today’s leaders. Goldman advises investors to stay diversified, as the benefits of the AI revolution are spreading across industries — from capital goods and energy to real estate and transport — all supported by Big Tech’s infrastructure buildout and rising global capex spending. In short: while the AI boom isn’t a bubble yet, the real test will come when competition heats up and the market decides who the long-term winners truly are. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Jefferies analysts have flipped bullish on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — upgrading the stock to buy after its sharp rally driven by a new partnership with ChatGPT creator OpenAI. The research note sounded almost like a mea culpa. “We rarely do this,” admitted analysts led by Blayne Curtis. “We raised estimates and our [price target] last week following positive server checks but couldn’t triangulate the AI ramp.” That ramp came into focus after OpenAI agreed to purchase up to 6 gigawatts of AMD chips, a move Jefferies says could generate well over $100 billion in revenue potential. AMD has said each gigawatt equates to “double-digit billions” in value. OpenAI’s buying spree doesn’t stop there — the company is also investing heavily in Nvidia, Oracle, Hynix, and Samsung, as it races to secure massive computing capacity for its growing AI infrastructure. “While none of these deals are binding, they highlight just how massive OpenAI’s AI compute ambitions have become,” Jefferies wrote. “This is a land grab — not just for GPUs, but for gigawatts of data center power. There’s still a lot to sort out, but what’s clear is that AI spending is accelerating from here.” Jefferies lifted its price target to $300 from $170, now the most optimistic on Wall Street, according to FactSet. Other analysts may soon have to follow suit: Goldman Sachs’s target remains at $150, while Deutsche Bank and Wedbush sit below AMD’s recent close of $203.71. AMD shares jumped 23.7%, a six-standard-deviation move, according to MarketWatch — its second-biggest percentage gain this year, narrowly trailing the 23.8% surge on April 9. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

AI Bubble? Research Firm Says the Hype Has Already Peaked Artificially low interest rates drove billions into artificial intelligence, but independent research firm MacroStrategy Partnership warns the boom has already hit its limits. The firm, led by former UBS strategist Julien Garran, argues the AI surge isn’t just another bubble — it’s potentially 17 times larger than the dot-com crash and four times bigger than the 2008 housing collapse. Cheap Money, Bad Allocation Their analysis leans on economist Knut Wicksell’s principle that capital is best allocated when corporate borrowing costs stay above nominal GDP. Instead, a decade of ultra-low rates distorted the system, funneling trillions into misallocated assets: AI, housing, real estate, NFTs, and venture capital. LLMs at the Breaking Point The research also casts doubt on AI’s technological foundations: With no clear competitive moat, escalating costs, and weak commercial applications, MacroStrategy sees diminishing returns setting in fast. Risk of Recession Ahead The firm warns this could trigger a reversal similar to the dot-com bust in 2001. If data-center spending and wealth effects stall, the economy — already slowing — may tip into recession. Policy options for the Fed or the Trump administration could prove limited, raising the risk of a drawn-out reflation effort, like after the early ’90s S&L crisis. Where to Invest Instead MacroStrategy advises: John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Wall Street Fear Could Push Stocks Higher, Says Popular Newsletter Editor Stock futures slipped as the fourth quarter begins under a government shutdown and without key jobs data. But one closely watched market voice says nervous investors may actually be setting the stage for more gains. The anonymous author of Lord Fed’s Gazette — Substack’s 13th most popular finance blog — argues that Wall Street’s so-called “smart money” remains too skittish. That hesitation, he says, will only give the S&P 500 more room to run. Lord Fed’s calls have been on point before. In August, he predicted the index’s move to 6,500 would launch a new leg higher. By September, the S&P had logged eight record closes in a month and 23 for the quarter. But hedge funds are still blinking. Goldman data shows managers cut tech exposure at the fastest pace since August as the S&P neared 6,700 — even after sitting out most of the rally. “They’re selling into strength because they’re convinced this is the top,” Lord Fed wrote. “That’s not how tops happen. That’s how bull markets extend.” His bottom line: fear is fuel. And after the latest round of selling, his 7,000 target for the S&P looks more likely than ever. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com