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Summer Market Turbulence: The 5 Biggest Risks to Watch

Friday’s Jobs Report: A Key Test for the Stock Market This spring’s steadier backdrop has pushed U.S. stocks to record highs, but Friday’s jobs report is one of three major risks that could disrupt the summer calm in markets. The S&P 500 index (SPX) has risen more than 10% in 2024, with Wall Street’s fear index (VIX) and the bond market’s MOVE gauge both hitting their lowest levels since March 2022, when the Federal Reserve started raising rates. Recent market stability is due to a “convergence” among investors who believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates no more than twice this year while achieving a soft landing for the U.S. economy, according to Jason Draho, head of asset allocation at UBS Financial Services. Draho highlighted a “clear consensus view”: “Growth is slowing but not collapsing, inflation is stubborn but trending lower, and the bar for Fed rate cuts is low while hikes are effectively off the table,” he wrote in a Monday client note. This view suggests investors expect minimal changes to benchmark rates this year, which Draho said could maintain market calm into late summer. However, three near-term risks are on the horizon, starting with May’s jobs report due Friday. Any “significant surprises relative to expectations” could be disruptive, as could May’s consumer-price index and the conclusion of the Fed’s next policy meeting, both set for June 12. Stocks struggled for direction on Tuesday, following a turbulent session with trading glitches on the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was virtually unchanged, while the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) both fell 0.2%, according to FactSet. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Berkshire Hathaway
Market News

Thinking of Buying the Dip Post-Berkshire Hathaway Glitch? Proceed with Caution

Why Trades Following Monday’s NYSE Glitch Are Likely to Be Reversed Monday’s NYSE glitch prompted many investors to seize the opportunity to acquire Berkshire Hathaway’s Class A shares at a staggering discount exceeding 99%, according to FactSet data. However, even if some managed to execute orders before trading halted, it’s probable they won’t retain ownership of those shares, according to officials from two Wall Street trading firms. The New York Stock Exchange intends to review any trades potentially affected by the glitch, as stated by a spokesperson to MarketWatch. Moreover, Joe Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading, emphasized that trades precipitating Monday’s drastic decline are expected to be voided under the exchange’s policy on “clearly erroneous transactions,” empowering market makers to challenge trades stemming from glitches. Jonathan Corpina, senior managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners, shares this sentiment, foreseeing a reversal of trades executed at incorrect prices. Berkshire BRK.A, +0.59%, Bank of Montreal BMO, -0.22%, Barrick Gold ABX, +2.19%, and 37 other stocks were subject to halts for volatility by New York Stock Exchange group exchanges on Monday, following significant declines, according to a statement from a New York Stock Exchange spokesperson. Berkshire shares plunged to 99.97% to $185.10, compared to $627,400 on Friday, before being halted at 9:50 a.m. Eastern time. In theory, this would have nearly halved Berkshire’s market capitalization to $536.3 billion by around 11 a.m. Eastern time on Monday, compared to $897.1 billion on Friday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Trading in Berkshire’s Class B shares BRK.B remained unaffected. Trading in all affected stocks resumed shortly before noon. The glitch stemmed from a technical issue with industry-wide price bands published by the Consolidated Trade Association’s Securities Information Processor, triggering “limit-up/limit-down” trading halts soon after Monday’s market opening, according to the NYSE spokesperson. Monday’s incident echoed a trading glitch in January 2023, where NYSE’s opening auction issues led to trades in over 250 securities being filled at incorrect prices. At that time, the exchange stated that those trades wouldn’t be honored. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Market Dip Today, Rally Tomorrow: The Positive Side of PCE Data

Early Friday, stock index futures indicate the S&P 500 may face another decline. Over the past two days, the Wall Street barometer has fallen 1.33% due to disappointing technology sector earnings, which have dampened optimism about AI-related companies. Rising borrowing costs have also hurt sentiment. Midweek, the 2-year Treasury yield rose above 5% again as Federal Reserve officials emphasized that inflation remains too high to consider cutting interest rates soon. Inflation concerns will be the focus on Friday, the last session of May, with the release of the April personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, believes the recent market dip increases the likelihood that the PCE report will trigger a stock rally. Historically, the S&P 500 has risen by a median of 0.3% over one day and 0.8% over five days following the 16 most recent PCE releases, with win ratios of 83% and 75%, respectively. Lee notes that when the market dips ahead of the PCE report, the returns are even better. Since the end of 2022, the S&P 500 has declined before the inflation data four times and subsequently gained each time, with increases of 0.8% in February 2023, 3% in May 2023, 0.2% in September 2023, and 5.3% in October 2023. Interestingly, these gains were not necessarily due to cooler-than-expected PCE prints; in three out of the four instances, the core PCE was hotter than forecasted. This suggests that even slightly higher-than-expected PCE data on Friday could lead to a stock rally. Lee believes the recent consolidation in stocks is ending, with June looking positive for five reasons: “If the seasonal median gain of 3.9% holds, the S&P 500 could potentially reach 5,500 in June,” Lee concludes. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

fund
Market News

Outperforming the S&P 500: The Stock Fund Betting on AI Enablers

Putnam Large Cap Growth Fund’s Strategy for Durable Growth Investors often demand superior performance to justify higher fees for active management. While outperforming broad stock indexes is challenging and fees can contribute to underperformance, active management can employ strategies to mitigate long-term risk, even with an aggressive growth focus. The $10.6 billion Putnam Large Cap Growth Fund (PGOYX) showcases successful active management. Co-managed by Richard Bodzy since August 2017 and Greg McCullough since May 2019, this five-star Morningstar-rated fund targets companies with durable business models aligned with industry-wide themes. They invest in “enablers” – companies providing essential tools or services for innovators, ensuring long-term benefits regardless of economic conditions. Enabler Companies The fund’s top holdings include Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA). Both are integral across industries, with Microsoft excelling in cloud applications and corporate services, and Nvidia leading in the GPU market for AI technologies. These giants reflect the fund’s strategy of investing in companies with diverse, durable growth opportunities. Key Examples Top Holdings (as of April 30) Here are the top 10 holdings of the Putnam Large Cap Growth Fund, along with their allocations in the fund, the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF), and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). Performance The Putnam Large Cap Growth Fund’s Class Y shares, available to institutions or via investment advisers, have outperformed the S&P 500 over the long term despite higher fees. Bodzy and McCullough emphasize investing in innovative, structurally advantaged companies to guard against uncertainty, positioning the fund to benefit if market trends shift. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

S&P 500
Market News

S&P 500 Futures Drop Amidst Climbing Bond Yields Concerns

How Are Stock-Index Futures Trading? On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 217 points, or 0.55%, to 38,853. The S&P 500 edged up by 1 point, or 0.02%, to 5,306, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 99 points, or 0.59%, to 17,020. Futures suggest that U.S. stock indices will open Wednesday’s session lower as Treasury yields hover near four-week highs. Bonds have experienced fresh sell-offs following two poorly received Treasury auctions on Tuesday. This was compounded by stronger-than-expected consumer confidence data and comments from a Federal Reserve official, indicating that it will take several more months of steady inflation before considering a rate cut. The likelihood of a September rate cut has fallen below 50%, down from nearly 60% last week. Concerns over persistently high borrowing costs are contending with optimism about major tech stocks—Nvidia reached a new record on Tuesday—affecting market sentiment, according to Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. “Financial markets are divided in sentiment, with AI enthusiasm continuing to boost major tech stocks, while concerns about high interest rates keep investors cautious in other areas,” she said. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

fund
Market News

Why These Sectors Stand Out in a Star Fund Manager’s Investment Strategy

As summer and the mid-year mark approach, investors are finding success by sticking with stocks. Clare Hart, Morningstar’s 2024 “Outstanding Portfolio Manager,” shares her strategy as she wraps up a two-decade tenure at JPMorgan’s Equity Income Fund (OIEIX). Under her guidance, the fund has averaged a 9.4% annualized gain since 2004, outperforming both Morningstar’s large value category and the Russell 1000 Value Index by over a percentage point. Hart’s investment approach centers on stocks that meet three criteria: quality, reasonable valuation, and dividend payouts. She seeks companies with reliable management and strong industry positions, often focusing on underappreciated innovators. Examples include Philip Morris International (PM) with its shift towards a “smokeless” future, and Procter & Gamble (PG), which leads market innovation. Big Tech also features in her portfolio, with holdings in Microsoft (MSFT) and a smaller position in Apple (AAPL) due to valuation concerns. Financials make up the largest sector in her portfolio, with Wells Fargo (WFC) as a top holding. Despite the turmoil surrounding Silicon Valley Bank last year, Hart saw it as an opportunity, confident in Wells Fargo’s potential post its Fed-imposed balance sheet cap. Charles Schwab (SCHW) is another notable holding, seen as a stable long-term investment with strong online tools for investors, despite last year’s concerns about its deposit base. Energy stocks also play a key role in Hart’s fund, with ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX), and Exxon (XOM) among the top holdings. Hart is optimistic about energy, recognizing the importance of these companies in the transition from fossil fuels and their commitment to efficiency and environmental friendliness. As Hart prepares to hand over the fund in September to co-managers Andrew Brandon and David Silberman, she voices one ongoing concern: inflation. She notes that consumers continue to spend despite rising prices, and she anticipates that inflation fatigue could eventually impact the market. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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