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Timing Your Exit: Should You Pull Money Out of the Stock Market?

/ August 15, 2023

Investing can cause stress as we aim to make the best decisions for our future financial situation. However, it can be challenging to navigate through unpredictable market conditions. More specifically, individual investors frequently contemplate how they should respond during a market decline or when experts predict an approaching economic downturn. In times of uncertainty, you might consider transferring your investments from stocks and stock funds to cash. Nevertheless, whether or not you should make this decision depends on which part of your investment portfolio you are specifically referring to. When it comes to the portion of your investment portfolio that you utilize to pay for expenses, such as your child’s upcoming tuition bill, it might be prudent to convert those assets into cash. This is because if you are required to make a payment of $25,000 at the start of the following month, it would not be practical to have a balance of only $20,000. The word “cash” can encompass tangible money, such as funds in a bank account or a money market fund, as well as short-term bonds or bond funds that have stable values resembling cash. On the other hand, what about the money you have set aside for your future? What about the bank accounts you are utilizing to save for your retirement, which could still be many years or even decades in the future? Completely committing to holding cash is not a suitable strategy for this long-term portion of your investment portfolio. Should you consider selling your stocks when prices are decreasing? Why is it not advisable to withdraw money from the long-term portion of your investment portfolio? Instead, why not consider selling stocks and stock funds as a way to mitigate or avoid additional financial losses? Experienced investors, who may have grown used to changes in the market, still feel upset when the value of their investment portfolios goes down. However, it is crucial to distinguish between a decrease in value and actually losing money. The losses are only considered genuine and concrete when the investments are sold. Some investors think they can handle difficult market situations by selling their investments when prices are low and buying back when the market improves. However, accurately predicting the best time to enter or leave the market is very difficult, and even experienced experts often fail. This is especially true for investment funds. Sell High, Buy Low? Investors, especially those relying on funds like regular savers with retirement accounts, often make the error of selling their assets at low prices when trying to determine the optimal time to invest in the stock market. This not only results in incurring losses but also causes them to miss out on potential profits by not actively participating in the market during a rally. This is due to the fact that rallies typically commence without warning, causing individual investors to hesitate in getting back into the market. They worry that these fresh rallies are merely short-lived and have long been ridiculed as “dead-cat bounces” by investors. According to the Dalbar Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior report, the average stock investor had a 17.29% growth in 2020, indicating the reliability of the data. While this increase is not considered bad, it is slightly lower than the overall market growth of 18.40%. In 2021, the gap became wider as the average worth of stock investments among individual investors went up by 15.25% in the first six months. Nonetheless, this increase was lower than the overall market’s progress of 17.36%. Why the gap? According to Corey Clark, the Chief Marketing Officer at Dalbar, individual investors commonly make unwise choices when attempting to predict the market. They frequently sell stocks when their prices are at a low point and purchase them when prices are high. Furthermore, their decision-making is typically flawed, resulting in significantly greater losses compared to their gains. This implies that their main problem stems from making more incorrect predictions than accurate ones. Learning to Live With Volatility After any market decline, no matter how severe, the market always recovers its value. The same goes for properly diversified investment portfolios, as they also bounce back. Therefore, it is not beneficial to repeatedly enter and exit the market as it has a negative impact on your portfolio’s performance. Experts advise that individuals must acknowledge and embrace the fact that market volatility is a regular event in the stock market. They emphasize the importance of either enduring or reducing its impact to a manageable level. In the beginning of the 21st century, the S&P 500 Index experienced a substantial decrease in value of nearly 50% due to the bursting of the dot.com bubble. This was followed by the Great Recession, which occurred from 2007 to 2009 and led to an even larger drop of approximately 60% in the index’s value. In more recent times, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a swift decline of the S&P 500, with a decrease of 34% occurring within a single month in March 2020. Nevertheless, following each of those decreases and subsequent periods of declining stock prices, there was a subsequent rise. The S&P 500 not only rebounded but also surpassed previous high points. On average, since 1929, periods of declining markets have experienced decreases of 37.3%. Conversely, the subsequent periods of rising markets since 1921 have experienced average gains of 164%, as stated by Sam Stovall, the chief investment strategist at CRFA Research. The obvious conclusion is that individuals who maintain their investments for an extended period of time are given benefits by the market. Remain focused and maintain self-control, even in situations that are not easily foreseeable. It is clear that there are benefits to maintaining self-control and sticking to your plan when the market is unpredictable. However, many people struggle to bridge the gap between understanding what is correct and actually implementing the necessary steps. Research suggests that the pain resulting from monetary loss outweighs the pleasure derived from financial gains. Both emotions and

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Bull vs. Bear: The Summer Challenge That Could Shape the Stock Market

/ August 14, 2023

Historical records show that August and September tend to be tumultuous months for the American stock market. Therefore it would not be surprising that there is instability during the beginning of the month. Since the S&P 500 index grew by 20% from January to July 2023 many investors have been hoping that the market would balance out after a sharp rise. As of October 16 the market has increased by 25% since its lowest point after the bear market which occurred on October 12 when it was 3,577.03 What could possibly put an end to the 2023 rally? Essaye commented in a note last week that if this situation materializes it would significantly weaken the three cornerstones of the rally; as such investors should prepare for a significant drop in stocks regardless of the recent retreat. He continued to mention that in the event of this happening more than 10% reduction can be forecasted thus possibly erasing almost all the enhancement of stocks since June and conceivably all the profits made this year. That scenario has yet to materialize. Last week it was reported that the US consumer price index had gone up from 3% in June to 3.2% in July which was higher than the rate from the previous year. On the other hand the core rate (excluding food and fuel prices) had decreased from 4.8% to 4.7% The July producer price index which records wholesale costs was a bit more favorable than anticipated; however investors still think the Federal Reserve will hold the rate when they convene in September. Policy makers are anticipating to view another collection of employment information such as the August job report and inflation numbers before their upcoming meeting. At the same time a sharp increase in Treasury yields with the 10-year interest rate surpassing 4.15% after peaking at its highest point since 2023 near 4.2% is causing the stock market to remain weak. This rise in bond yields makes government bonds more attractive than other investments as well as increasing businesses’ expenses when it comes to borrowing money. The price of stocks has climbed since the end of last year as investors’ fears ended up not being realized however that trend has now come to an end. The market rally was sparked by a pessimistic environment but the idea that inflation the Federal Reserve and the economy will be in balance — referred to as a “Goldilocks” situation — could spell trouble for those who are overly optimistic according to Hackett. Although these expectations don’t seem too extreme at the moment they still should be monitored closely. Investors are concerned about the typical patterns seen throughout the year. According to data provided by Dow Jones Market Data the S&P 500 has been relatively inactive in August in comparison to other months in the year since 1928. It has shown a mere increase of 0.67% which ranks August fifth as the worst month for the S&P 500. Meanwhile September stands as the worst with an average decline of 1.1% And then there’s volatility. He advised that attempting to be overly shrewd with the market is not ideal since it is likely going through a typical time of stabilization. He declared that it will not continue enduring a prolonged period of hardship. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Walking the Tightrope: How Tech Stocks’ Downturn Could Shake 2023’s Stock-Market Rally

/ August 13, 2023

The Nasdaq-100, being the leading performer among key U.S. stock indices this year, has just encountered its toughest two-week period since December, according to data from Dow Jones Market. On Friday, the tech-focused index ended a fortnight slide of 4.6%, dropping 100.77 points or 0.7%, to close at 15,028. This signifies the most significant loss since December 23 when the index witnessed a 5% retreat, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The latest information indicates a dip in the usually robust market momentum of surging technology stocks. According to a report from Wednesday, the widely tracked Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ exchange-traded fund on the Nasdaq-100 index, for the first time since March 10, concluded below its 50-day moving average, as shown by FactSet data. The index has consistently finished below its moving average for three consecutive sessions. Technical analysts interpret this as a possible sign of the index’s gains in 2023 continuing to dwindle. Approximately 40% of the Nasdaq-100’s worth is composed of a handful of highly valuable large tech stocks. The diminishing strength of a number of these important stocks, which played a major role in the U.S. market’s rebound in 2023, is amplifying fears that the market may be edging towards a more substantial and possibly widespread sell-off. The shares of four prominent firms, referred to as the “Magnificent Seven” – Apple Inc., Nvidia Corp., Microsoft Corp., and Tesla Inc., all concluded the week below their 50-day moving averages. Experts infer that signs of a growing technology rundown may be subtly concealed within the market’s structure. BTIG’s chief technical analyst, Jonathan Krinsky, issued a research note to clients and the media on Thursday. In this note, he suggested that QQQ, along with several other tech-based ETFs, is coming close to a “volume pocket.” This implies these ETFs may face a swift decline in their value. A review of the volume-at-price data over the last three years indicates that a sustained decrease below $368 for QQQ might lead to its quicker liquidation. This prediction relies on previous volume-at-price analysis, a tool used by stock market specialists to find possible areas of support and resistance for a certain security. Krinsky conducted an examination of the trade volume of a particular security at diverse price levels within a set time period, utilizing the volume-at-price assessment. His investigation encompassed data from the last three years. In a phone interview with MarketWatch, Krinsky revealed that support and resistance mechanisms are dependent on the historical values of prices. He went on to explain that due to the participants’ incomplete memory of price ranges within these confines, there can be a faster rate of price fluctuations, Krinsky further discussed. Krinsky highlighted that QQQ experienced a roughly 16% increase over a period of six weeks from the end of April to mid-June. This substantial growth implies the risk of a potentially faster decline. As of the market close on Friday, QQQ has observed a 37.5% growth since the beginning of the year, a fact supported by FactSet data. Analysts have credited various factors for the retreat, including over-focused investment, overvalued high-performing stocks, rising treasury yields, and corporate earnings that failed to meet the lofty expectations of investors. Rising Treasury yields have heightened the stress on stocks, especially on high-performing tech stocks which are significantly vulnerable to fluctuations in interest rates. The main worry currently is whether the ongoing deterioration of Big Tech will pull the broader market down with it, or if other market segments will step up to offset this deficit. Here’s the thing: The significant recalibration that happened on Monday led to four major changes in the Nasdaq 100. James St. Aubin, the main investment director at Sierra Investment Management, indicated that it seems investors are content to divert their attention to other areas of the market that are not as significantly valued as the large tech companies. St. Aubin informed MarketWatch during a phone discussion that the leading participants are seeing a reduction in their lead, but the ones lagging behind are starting to close the gap. He added that it would be more concerning if funds were consistently being withdrawn and being reinvested in cash and bonds. U.S. stocks saw a minor uptick on Thursday, but couldn’t hold onto the majority of their early gains. The market got a lift initially when the July inflation data came out, matching economists’ forecasts. However, the President of the San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, asserted that considerable efforts are still needed from the Fed to manage inflation. This resulted in higher Treasury yields, which caused a swift turnaround in the stock market. The S&P 500 SPX ended the day with a fall on Friday, marking a reduction of 4.78 points or 0.1%, finishing at 4,464.05. This signals the second week in a row of decreasing performance. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, which includes a broader selection of stocks than the Nasdaq-100, also experienced a descent of 93.14 points or 0.7%, concluding the day at 13,644.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a positive growth, rising by 105.25 points, an increase of 0.3%, to reach 35,281.40. The 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y experienced a significant increase last Friday, rising to 4.156%, its peak for the week, as shown by data from Dow Jones Market. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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From Relief to Restraint: Analyzing the Transition as Stock Markets Stabilize

/ August 12, 2023

The substantial growth in the stock market observed in the early portion of the year has now concluded. Investors should prepare themselves for reasonable returns from this point up until the end of 2023. Barry Bannister, the chief equity strategist at Stifel, alerted clients in a message on Thursday that the economic rally witnessed during non-recessionary times has ended. He additionally warned that there’s still a chance of a recession affecting the US economy in the initial quarter of 2024. Bannister claimed that the repercussions of past policy limitations, ongoing surveillance by the Federal Reserve, the potential for a slight oil crisis, and the impending total utilization of economic resources all contribute to the likelihood of a conventional, but not harsh, U.S. recession at the onset of 2024. Bannister’s viewpoint largely depends on the commitment of the Federal Reserve to lessen inflation to its long-term target of 2%, even though it’s currently approaching 3%. Bannister expressed that the previous ceiling for inflation has now turned into the base level of inflation. He suggested that considerable work and strategy would be necessary to reduce the inflation rate from about 3% to close to 2%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July likely reinforced Bannister’s viewpoint, as it disclosed a 0.2% monthly price escalation and an approximate 3.2% annual increment over the last year. These increases are more significant than the 3.0% recorded in June. Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 has seen an increase of around 17% but has experienced a decrease of about 3% since the onset of August. Bannister forecasts that the S&P 500 will close the year at 4,400, suggesting a likely fall of close to 2% from its current levels. Bannister anticipates that the stock market will remain fairly stable from now until the end of the year, a trend that seasonality data suggests would not be uncommon. Information from the Bank of America shows that during the third year of the Presidential Cycle, the stock market yields are typically lower from July to December. The Presidential Cycle is a four-year period in the stock market that corresponds with the tenure of the US President. Stephen Suttmeier from BofA issued a comment on Tuesday, highlighting the ongoing period of lower activity for the S&P 500 within the Presidential Cycle. He explained that average and middle monthly returns indicate the S&P 500 generally performs well from January to July during the third year, but it typically faces underwhelming performance from August to November. Nevertheless, it often recovers with a surge in December. Bannister’s perspective on the stock market nearing 2024 doesn’t seem too optimistic, given his existing projections on earnings. His forecast of the S&P 500 is to register earnings per share at $205 in 2023 and just a slight increment to $209 per share in 2024. This is notably lower than the widespread forecast of the S&P 500 yielding $226 earnings per share in the next year. “Bannister asserted that if our forecast of a relatively steady Earnings Per Share proves to be accurate, then the S&P 500 could possibly remain stable as well.” John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Baby Boomers and Stock-Market Risk: Striking the Perfect Portfolio Balance

/ August 11, 2023

As the baby boomer generation approaches retirement, a note of caution arises concerning their stock holdings. Presently, a significant 37% of baby boomers maintain a higher level of equity holdings than advised by Fidelity Investments for their life stage. This insight comes from Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s Vice President of Thought Leadership. Baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, are either nearing or have already entered the retirement phase. The average proportion of equity in baby boomers’ Fidelity retirement accounts currently sits at 65.8% as of the second quarter, comfortably falling within Fidelity’s recommended equity range of 47% to 67%. However, a careful warning is extended to the 37% of baby boomers who carry a more significant exposure to equities. After recent market gains, these individuals should consider rebalancing, as recommended by Shamrell. The S&P 500 has recorded an increase of approximately 17% this year. Derek Pszenny, Co-Founder of Carolina Wealth Management, emphasizes the importance of retirees thoroughly assessing potential risks, including the risk of outliving their funds, inflation, and establishing a sustainable withdrawal rate from their retirement accounts. “Investing is dependent on time, not just age,” notes Pszenny. “The more you withdraw, the greater equity exposure is needed.” Fidelity’s recommended equity holdings offer a range within 10% of the Fidelity Equity Glide Path calculation. A tool is available to estimate the time until retirement and determine the suitable portfolio distribution for individuals nearing retirement. For example, if retirement is anticipated within a decade, the tool suggests that Fidelity Freedom 2035 currently holds 79% equity. This indicates that a portfolio with equity ranging from 69% to 89% would be considered appropriately aligned with the stock market based on the time until retirement. “These are suggested levels, tailored to individual uniqueness and distinct goals. These are recommendations,” clarifies Shamrell. “Take the time to assess and find the level that brings you peace of mind.” It’s important to note that many baby boomers may still possess pensions alongside their 401(k) plans and other investments such as real estate. Due to their entry into the workforce before the emergence of 401(k) accounts, auto-enrollment, and target-date funds, this demographic might find themselves less aligned with younger investors, as explained by Shamrell. Fidelity’s target-date funds extend an investor’s retirement plan throughout their lifetime, surpassing the actual retirement date. “Investors may experience 15, 20, or even more years of retirement. Preventing the depletion of savings prematurely is critical,” emphasizes Shamrell. A fundamental tenet within the realm of investments suggests that as investors approach their retirement goal, a gradual reduction in equity exposure is advisable. For baby boomers nearing retirement, this translates to a shift from stocks to bonds or cash, as outlined by the Vanguard Group, another investment advisory firm. “While age might impact the mix of asset allocation, it’s essential not to be swayed solely by averages and trends. There’s no universal formula for investors. To determine the optimal asset allocation mix, investors – irrespective of age – should factor in their goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance,” explains Nilay Gandhi, a Senior Wealth Adviser at Vanguard. “For investors deliberating when and how to pivot, consulting a financial adviser can be beneficial. Timing retirement can be intricate,” recommends Gandhi. For the typical retiree, Pszenny suggests an equities exposure ranging from 50% to 75%, accompanied by an annual withdrawal rate of 4% to 5%. “I’m quite confident that they can meet their retirement goal without depleting their savings,” Pszenny asserts. Pszenny raises concerns about target-date funds due to the common misconception surrounding the fund’s time frame – whether it guides individuals to their retirement date or spans their entire lifetime. “The most crucial investment decision revolves around asset allocation. Each individual should determine the quantity of equities they hold and how it’s allocated,” Pszenny concludes. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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? From Rally to Rest: Expert Strategist Anticipates S&P 500’s Calm Waters Ahead ??

/ August 10, 2023

A seasoned strategist whose accurate prediction of the 2023 market rally garnered attention now envisions a period of stagnation for stocks throughout the remaining course of this year and possibly extending into 2024. This foresight is rooted in the belief that corporate earnings growth will fall short of the exceedingly optimistic expectations set by Wall Street. Barry Bannister, an equity strategist at Stifel, has conveyed his insights in a recent report, emphasizing that the driving force behind this year’s rally – the relief stemming from the non-materialization of a U.S. recession in 2023—has likely peaked. According to Bannister’s outlook, according to FactSet data, the S&P 500 index is poised to traverse a lateral trajectory for the rest of 2023, culminating at approximately 4,400 points, a decrease of around 68 points from its closing value on Wednesday. Nevertheless, Bannister identifies potential prospects within sectors that have lagged behind the market leaders. His approach revolves around “pair trades,” encompassing the shorting of prominent Big Tech stocks while concurrently investing in financials, materials, industrials, and other cyclical growth stocks that have experienced subpar performance. Bannister anticipates that the equal-weighted S&P 500 index will outperform the conventionally capitalized S&P 500 during the latter part of the year. Recent trends have already started validating these prognostications. Since mid-July, coinciding with the commencement of the corporate earnings season, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has surged by 2.4%, surpassing the 1.6% gain achieved by the conventional S&P 500. Within the same timeframe, several members within the “Magnificent Seven” consortium of mega-cap technology stocks, which Bannister recommends shorting, have displayed signs of retreat. Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. have notably declined, while Nvidia Corp. remains relatively stable. His accurate call on this year’s market resurgence underscores Banister’s forecasting prowess. While many analysts projected a slump in stocks during the first half of 2023, followed by a rebound later in the year, Bannister diverged from the norm by forecasting a reversal predicated on the anticipation of diminishing U.S. inflation. This prediction was validated as June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a mere 0.2% uptick in consumer prices, signifying a retreat in inflation to a pace not witnessed in two years. Bannister now posits that the deceleration in inflation is nearing its threshold. Furthermore, he contends that stocks could encounter challenges in 2024 due to Wall Street’s elevated predictions for corporate earnings growth failing to materialize. For the upcoming year, Bannister and Stifel foresee aggregate S&P 500 earnings per share hovering around $209, a marginal departure from the 2023 projections, in contrast to the market consensus of $226. Bannister concludes that earnings might stumble as a mild recession emerges in Q1 2024. Additionally, a rise in oil prices could trigger a minor price shock, propelling the prevailing 3% inflation to establish a new baseline. This scenario would render it intricate for the Federal Reserve to validate interest rate reductions. In Banister’s estimation, lethargic economic expansion and the aftermath of COVID-19 stimulus measures will further cast a shadow on corporate profits. Given the recent downtrend observed in early August, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average registering losses, Bannister’s circumspect standpoint continues to capture attention. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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