stock market

Bill Smead Bets on Forgotten Sectors as AI Mania Runs Hot As Wall Street rides an AI-fueled rally, veteran investor Bill Smead is staying grounded — and looking far beyond Silicon Valley. Smead, founder and chief investment officer of Smead Capital Management, believes that when the AI boom fades, it’ll be average Americans — not tech giants — who keep portfolios alive. Through his $4.5 billion Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), Smead focuses on “buying great businesses when they’re deeply out of favor” and holding them long term. “We look for consistent profits, strong balance sheets, and defendable market positions,” he told MarketWatch. Avoiding the AI Frenzy Unlike many funds chasing big tech, Smead’s top holdings sit in consumer discretionary and energy, not AI. While his fund has lagged the Russell 1000 Value Index this year, it’s ahead over the past five and ten years. “I don’t envy people making money in the racy stuff,” he said, adding that AI investments are being made “like drunken sailors on leave.” Smead expects a “lost decade” ahead — similar to the years after the dot-com bubble and financial crisis — with two bear markets likely in the next seven to eight years. His strategy: avoid what will hurt most when the tide turns. Investing in Everyday America Smead sees risk in baby boomer spending drying up when markets stumble, though his son and co-manager Cole believes younger generations will carry on the economy. Their solution is to invest in companies tied to the real economy — the kind that serve the everyday consumer. One Quiet Tech Bet Though skeptical of AI hype, Smead still holds Qualcomm (QCOM), a company delivering 40–50% returns on equity for a decade. “Nobody’s paying attention to them because they’re not part of the AI story — and that’s exactly why they’re cheap,” he said. If Qualcomm grows earnings 10% annually for the next ten years, Smead believes it could be “a spectacular stock” — proof that patience and value still matter, even in an AI-obsessed market. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Wall Street Takes a Breather After Record-Breaking Run U.S. markets cooled off Thursday as both stocks and gold slipped from record highs, signaling a brief pause after weeks of powerful gains. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, marking only its second loss in 10 days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 243 points (0.5%), while the Nasdaq edged down 0.1%. After a stellar rally, gold also retreated — down 2.4% to below $4,000 per ounce — as traders caught their breath following a surge fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting rates to support the economy. Markets have been on a relentless climb — with the S&P 500 up 35% since April — raising concerns that prices might have run too far, too fast, particularly among AI-related stocks that have dominated recent gains. Dell Technologies dropped 5.2%, the day’s biggest S&P 500 loser, though it remains up nearly 11% for the week after highlighting strong AI growth prospects. Tesla slipped 0.7% after U.S. regulators opened a probe into its “Full Self-Driving” software. Helping offset those losses, Delta Air Lines jumped 4.3% after reporting better-than-expected summer profits and projecting stronger year-end earnings, citing a steady recovery in business travel and solid demand. With the U.S. government shutdown halting key economic updates — including the weekly jobless claims report — investors are turning to corporate earnings to gauge the economy’s pulse. PepsiCo rose 4.2% after beating quarterly expectations and posting stronger North American drink sales. Akero Therapeutics surged 16.3% after Novo Nordisk announced plans to buy the biotech firm for up to $5.2 billion. MP Materials gained 2.4% after China imposed new export restrictions on rare earths, and Costco climbed 3.1% on an 8% year-over-year revenue jump in September. At the close: Overseas, performance was mixed. Ferrari slid 15.4% in Italy after disappointing forecasts, while Shanghai stocks rose 1.3% after reopening from a holiday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 1.8%, driven by an 11.4% jump in SoftBank Group following its $5.4 billion deal to acquire ABB’s robotics division. In bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield inched higher to 4.14% from 4.13%. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Bubble Talk Returns as Bulls Eye Another Big Run The market paused briefly after another record high this week — but bullish confidence is still running hot. Despite sky-high valuations, investors are betting that the upcoming third-quarter earnings season will justify their optimism. Even Washington’s political chaos isn’t shaking sentiment. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says investors see through the U.S. government shutdown “noise,” expecting any slowdown to make the Federal Reserve more dovish. Add the typical year-end rally, as fund managers chase performance and load up on winning stocks, and the stage seems set for another leg higher. Lee still sees the S&P 500 reaching 7,000 by year-end. But a familiar warning is back: talk of a market melt-up. Billionaire trader Paul Tudor Jones compared today’s setup to late 1999, when the Nasdaq doubled in six months before the dotcom bubble burst. “All the ingredients are in place… you have to position yourself like it’s October 1999,” Jones told CNBC. That remark caught attention — especially from traders who believe they can ride the rally and get out before it pops. The Nasdaq is already up 19% this year. Yet Matthew Maley of Miller Tabak says investors shouldn’t expect a straight climb. “Even during that 1999 melt-up, the Nasdaq saw multiple 13–14% pullbacks before peaking,” he noted. Maley warns that similar volatility could strike again as earnings season heats up and fresh data flood in once the government reopens. His takeaway: even if Jones is right and another surge is coming, the ride could be far bumpier than most traders think. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com