stock market

evercore isi
Market News

Evercore ISI: The Comeback Play You Might Be Missing

/ October 27, 2025

Evercore ISI: Tax-Loss Trades Could Spark a November Comeback Investors kicked off the week in high spirits, buoyed by optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade deal, strong upcoming tech earnings, a healthy U.S. economy, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates this week. Together, these factors are helping the S&P 500 edge toward its 35th record high of 2025. Still, Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel points out that not all stocks are sharing in the rally. While the Russell 3000 has gained roughly 15% this year—matching the S&P 500’s performance—48% of its components remain down year-to-date. Historically, only about 35% of stocks would typically be negative at these index levels. Evercore’s data shows that despite the Russell 3000’s 41% rebound since its April 7 trough, only 27% of its constituents have climbed more than 10% from that low. Meanwhile, 16% are still below it. This reinforces the idea that “it’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market,” Evercore notes. That uneven performance sets the stage for the mutual fund tax-loss season, which wraps up on October 31. Tax-loss harvesting—selling losing positions to offset capital gains—often weighs on underperformers in the short term. But according to Evercore, it can also create opportunity. Looking back to 1990, the firm found that the worst-performing quintile of Russell 3000 stocks from January through October tends to outperform in November, rebounding an average of 2.7% once selling pressure eases. In short, some of today’s laggards could soon turn into November winners. Evercore screened the Russell 3000 for what it calls “Tax-Loss Tacticians”—stocks that have struggled relative to the market but remain fundamentally attractive. Among the top 20 by market value are: UnitedHealth (UNH), Accenture (ACN), Adobe (ADBE), Comcast (CMCSA), UPS (UPS), ONEOK (OKE), Target (TGT), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Kenvue (KVUE), General Mills (GIS), Constellation Brands (STZ), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Gartner (IT), GoDaddy (GDDY), Centene (CNC), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Dow (DOW), LyondellBasell (LYB), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), and DocuSign (DOCU). For traders eyeing opportunity, Evercore’s message is clear: October’s pain could set the stage for November’s gain. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

stocks
Uncategorized

Why Global Stocks Are Leaving the U.S. Behind

/ October 24, 2025

Ned Davis Research: Shift Toward Japan and Emerging Markets, Away from U.S. Stocks The U.S. market may be hitting record highs, but one top strategist says it’s time to look elsewhere. Despite a steady run for the S&P 500 — up 14.6% this year — and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 18.8%, Ned Davis Research (NDR) believes investors should start reducing U.S. exposure and reallocating to Japan and emerging markets (EM). In a recent note, Tim Hayes, NDR’s global chief strategist, warned that signs of fading relative strength in U.S. equities suggest a period of underperformance ahead, while Japan and EM are showing strong momentum, attractive valuations, and positive capital flows. U.S. Strength Starting to Fade U.S. stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI), but despite their global influence, they’ve underperformed both year-to-date and over the past several weeks. In comparison, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 25% in 2025, and the MSCI Japan Index is up 4% in the last 21 days — both ahead of U.S. benchmarks. This divergence has triggered an NDR sell signal for U.S. stocks as the 20-day relative strength reading hits its weakest level since April. Meanwhile, both EM and Japan have generated buy signals, suggesting stronger price momentum ahead. Attractive Valuations and Currency Tailwinds Hayes points out that emerging markets are far cheaper than the U.S., which remains the most expensive regional market based on NDR’s global valuation metrics. EMs have also benefited from rising currencies and steady inflows into exchange-traded funds, signaling renewed investor confidence. Japan, on the other hand, is being propelled by a weaker yen that supports exporters and boosts earnings. Investor sentiment has strengthened further amid optimism that the new government will deliver on its pro-growth policies. NDR’s internal data shows that 86% of Japan’s market indicators are bullish, the highest in over a year. Portfolio Rebalancing Ahead Given the shifting dynamics, NDR has downgraded U.S. equities to underweight, while upgrading Japan to overweight and increasing exposure to emerging markets. “The duration of these trends can’t be predicted,” Hayes concludes, “but our models clearly favor continued U.S. underperformance — and leadership from Japan and EM.” Investors seeking exposure to these regions can consider: John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

gold
Market News

JPMorgan Sees Gold Doubling by 2028

/ October 23, 2025

Goldman Sachs Doubles Down on Its Bullish Gold Outlook For those exhausted by the nonstop AI market debate, gold’s dramatic fall this week has offered a welcome change of topic. After its steepest one-day drop in more than ten years on Tuesday, the focus has turned to whether the metal can recover. Goldman Sachs believes it can. The bank is sticking with its end-2026 gold target of $4,900 per ounce, expecting further upside driven by central bank and institutional investor demand. “The pace of ETF inflows and client feedback suggests that long-term investors — including sovereign-wealth funds, central banks, pension funds, and asset managers — are preparing to raise their gold exposure as a strategic portfolio diversifier,” Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note. That view aligns with JPMorgan’s latest forecast, where strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou predict gold prices could more than double over the next three years as investors increasingly use the metal to hedge equity risk. According to JPMorgan, the recent selloff wasn’t sparked by retail investors leaving the market but by trend-following commodity trading advisers taking profits on gold futures — which have already risen 56% this year. The strategists argue that much of today’s gold demand isn’t about fears of a weakening dollar — the traditional “debasement trade” — but rather a shift toward protecting portfolios against rising stock prices. Unlike in past years, investors are now buying both equities and gold while avoiding long-term bonds, a sign that gold is reclaiming its place as a preferred hedge. By JPMorgan’s estimates, nonbank investors now hold about 2.6% of their portfolios in gold, equivalent to roughly $6.6 trillion in holdings. But if investors continue swapping bonds for gold as a hedge, that share could rise sharply. The strategists note that during last year’s market volatility — following tariff-related announcements from President Donald Trump — long-dated bonds failed to protect investors, prompting a rethink of traditional hedging strategies. If just 2% of bond allocations shift to gold, the total allocation could climb to 4.6%, implying a near doubling in gold prices. Factoring in rising equity values and expanding global financial assets, JPMorgan estimates gold prices may need to increase by 110% by 2028 to reach that level. In essence, both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan see gold as entering a new golden age — not a relic of the past, but a modern hedge for an equity-driven era, with powerful tailwinds from central banks, institutions, and retail investors alike. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

fund
Market News

Einhorn’s Fund Says AI Math Doesn’t Add Up

/ October 22, 2025

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Fund: “We Can’t Make Sense of the AI Math” Just how massive can AI spending get? Meta Platforms’ latest move — a record-breaking $27 billion private-credit deal to fund a new Louisiana data center — might have pushed even Wall Street’s limits. But it’s not just everyday investors who are struggling to make sense of the numbers. In our Call of the Day, billionaire David Einhorn and his $2 billion hedge fund Greenlight Capital say they’re “refusing to join the AI frenzy,” calling the current enthusiasm mathematically unsound. Einhorn, who correctly called Lehman Brothers’ downfall before the 2008 crash, said a month ago that AI-related spending is “so extreme that it’s really, really hard to understand.” In its latest quarterly letter, Greenlight doubled down: “When it comes to AI, doing the math is essential. The numbers simply have to make sense — and right now, they don’t.” The firm cited McKinsey’s projection of $6.7 trillion in global data center investment by 2030 — a figure it believes will require “extraordinary leverage” to finance. By Greenlight’s calculation, the industry would need to generate $2 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 just to earn a reasonable return. “Something’s got to give,” the letter warns, likening today’s hype to the dot-com bubble, when nobody knew “who would be the last buyer or the last short seller.” It’s been a tough road for Greenlight this year — the fund reported a 3.6% loss in Q3, bringing its 2025 gains to just 0.4%, compared to the S&P 500’s 14.8% rise. Still, Einhorn says there are no regrets: “While others are doing better right now, many are taking risks that we find hard to justify.” Instead of chasing AI, Greenlight is leaning into biotech and utilities. The fund highlighted Coya Therapeutics (COYA) — where it’s the largest shareholder — as a potential standout, citing optimism around the company’s clinical trials for an ALS (Lou Gehrig’s disease) treatment. “When AI startups with little more than a PowerPoint are getting multi-billion valuations, we’d rather invest in Coya — a $100 million company with real potential.” Greenlight also disclosed a medium-sized stake in Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG), expecting state-backed recovery after devastating wildfires. Its gold exposure through Green Brick Partners (GRBK) helped cushion the quarter’s losses, though gains were partly offset by a housing hedge. The fund closed out its Teck Resources (TECK) position with a solid profit but criticized the miner’s coal spinoff and merger with Anglo American (AAL). Einhorn’s bottom line: “This is still the most expensive market we’ve ever seen. Our best move is to stay cautious and disciplined.” John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

disney
Market News

Disney Drama: Politics Hit Streaming Subscriptions Hard

/ October 21, 2025

Disney’s Subscriber Cancellations Spike After Jimmy Kimmel Suspension Disney’s latest controversy shows once again that politics and business rarely mix well. Both Disney+ and Hulu experienced a sharp rise in cancellations in September after the company decided to temporarily pull Jimmy Kimmel off the air. The move came following backlash over comments Kimmel made about the death of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, which quickly escalated into a political firestorm. According to subscription analytics firm Antenna, the churn rate — the percentage of users canceling a service — doubled across Disney’s streaming platforms. Disney reported 183 million global subscribers across Disney+ and Hulu at the end of June, an 8% increase year-over-year. However, a company spokesperson acknowledged a noticeable uptick in cancellations last month while emphasizing that internal figures were slightly lower than Antenna’s estimates. The spokesperson also noted that the churn spike coincided with a Disney+ price increase, which may have contributed to the higher cancellation rate. The controversy began on September 17, when Disney removed Kimmel’s late-night show from ABC after his remarks drew criticism from the Trump administration and pressure from the FCC. The suspension triggered boycott calls among conservative audiences, who accused Disney of political censorship. Kimmel returned to air less than a week later, and some subscribers reportedly rejoined. Still, Disney’s stock fell more than 3% during the suspension period and has yet to fully recover. Analysts warned that even short-term dips in streaming growth could weigh heavily on Disney’s overall valuation, as streaming remains a key driver of investor confidence. The episode places Disney among other companies hit by politically charged backlash, such as Bud Light, Tesla, and Cracker Barrel. For Disney, the Kimmel episode underscores a broader truth: in a deeply divided political landscape, even temporary decisions can spark long-lasting business consequences. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Wall Street
Market News

Wall Street Roars Back with Record Earnings

/ October 20, 2025

Wall Street’s Big Banks Reap the Rewards of a Dealmaking Revival Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) delivered impressive third-quarter earnings as Wall Street dealmaking resurgence powered profits sharply higher. Bank of America’s profit jumped 23% to $8.47 billion, while Morgan Stanley’s soared 45% to $4.6 billion—each exceeding analyst expectations by more than $1 billion. The standout performance was fueled by a boom in mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs that gathered pace over the summer. Investment banking fees surged 43% at Bank of America to $2 billion, and 44% at Morgan Stanley to $2.1 billion from a year earlier. Trading also played a key role. Bank of America’s trading revenue rose 8% to $5.3 billion, while Morgan Stanley’s climbed 24%, lifting total trading income to $6.28 billion across equities, fixed income, currency, and commodities. Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick described the quarter as “outstanding,” and Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan credited “strong fee performance from our market-facing businesses.” The results add momentum to what’s becoming a strong quarter across major U.S. banks. Bank of America secured the lead role advising Union Pacific’s $71 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern, the year’s largest deal so far. Morgan Stanley also advised on that merger and co-facilitated Keurig Dr Pepper’s $18 billion purchase of JDE Peet’s. Following their reports, Bank of America shares rose 4%, and Morgan Stanley’s gained over 6% in early trading. Other banking heavyweights—Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo—also beat expectations, thanks to similar tailwinds. Banks are benefiting from a faster merger approval process and looser capital requirements under the Trump administration—conditions that have revived Wall Street’s appetite for big deals. Commenting on the current landscape, Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick noted that “macro uncertainty and enormous opportunity uncomfortably coexist,” likening the environment to the mid-1990s era of rapid financial expansion. Beyond Wall Street, Main Street lending also strengthened. Bank of America’s net interest income rose 9% year-over-year to $15.38 billion, setting a new record for quarterly lending revenue and underscoring continued resilience in its core business. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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