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Gold and silver outperformed bitcoin in 2025 as global stocks beat the U.S. For investors around the world, 2025 proved to be anything but predictable. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House rattled global markets, with his aggressive tariff agenda quickly becoming one of the defining market themes of the year. At the same time, the artificial-intelligence boom pushed ahead, with gains spreading far beyond the familiar “Magnificent Seven.” Yet despite the spotlight on crypto and next-generation technology, some of the strongest returns came from assets that have served as stores of value for centuries. “This was supposed to be a year dominated by crypto and a continuation of the AI-driven bull market,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “Instead, two of the biggest winners were gold — and especially silver — both of which crushed a weak year for crypto and even outpaced double-digit gains in major equity indexes.” Precious metals stole the show The metals market surged in 2025, with sharp swings in silver forcing the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to raise margin requirements twice in one week. Gold, after setting new records, finished the year up 64.4%, while silver skyrocketed 141.4% — their largest annual percentage gains since 1979. Copper also delivered a standout performance, climbing 41.2% for its strongest yearly advance since 2009, according to Dow Jones Market Data. With China’s silver export controls set to begin Jan. 1 and industrial demand for silver and copper expected to remain strong amid the data-center boom, supply constraints are likely to remain a key theme heading into 2026. U.S. stocks staged a historic rebound Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, announced after the close on April 2, sent the S&P 500 sliding toward bear-market territory as investors feared the tariffs could choke off global growth. Markets reversed course after Trump announced a 90-day pause to allow time for negotiations. By June 27, the S&P 500 reached a new closing high — its first since Feb. 19 — completing the fastest recovery on record following a drop of 15% or more. The index needed just 89 days to reclaim its peak, surpassing the previous record set in 1998. From its April 8 closing low — when it was down 18.9% from its February high — the rally was powerful. By year-end, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 27.7% from its low, the Nasdaq Composite had surged 52.2%, and the S&P 500 had climbed 37.4%, marking their strongest recoveries from a yearly low since 2020. Bitcoin failed to live up to expectations 2025 was widely expected to be bitcoin’s breakout year. Trump campaigned as a crypto ally, pushed pro-crypto policies after taking office, and oversaw broader institutional adoption of digital assets. Instead, bitcoin disappointed. After trading above $100,000 early in the year, it plunged during April’s tariff-driven market selloff, falling below $75,000 at its low. Although it later rebounded and hit a record high of $126,184 in early October, those gains quickly faded. Heavy selling by large holders pushed bitcoin into a bear market late in the year. It ended 2025 near $88,000 — roughly 30% below its peak and about 6% lower than where it began the year. The dollar had a rough year Trump’s tariffs and “America First” agenda weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 9.4% in 2025, its worst annual performance since 2017 and one of its weakest years on record. While some analysts argue the dollar could stabilize after the U.S. economy avoided recession, Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution warned risks remain. “One of the great puzzles of 2025 is that markets largely ignored President Trump’s pressure on the Fed,” Brooks wrote. “As we move closer to 2026, that issue may come back into focus — making me more cautious on the dollar despite growing bullish sentiment.” International stocks outpaced U.S. markets Equities outside the U.S. delivered an exceptional year. Although American markets posted solid gains — with the S&P 500 notching its third straight year of double-digit returns — international stocks outperformed by their widest margin since 2009. The MSCI All Country World ex-USA Index gained 29.3% in 2025, compared with a 16.4% increase for the S&P 500, an outperformance of nearly 13 percentage points. The index is also on track for its best annual performance since 2009. Standout performers included technology shares in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea, along with European defense contractors and banks. In the end, 2025 delivered a clear takeaway for investors: while crypto and AI dominated headlines, precious metals and international markets ultimately delivered the strongest results. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Valuation signals are flashing deep red for U.S. stocks, while non-U.S. markets appear far more attractive. It’s hard to imagine valuation indicators painting a more bearish picture for U.S. equities than they do today. By nearly every measure, U.S. stocks are priced at extreme levels. Meanwhile, non-U.S. stocks have already delivered more than twice the return of the S&P 500 this year, and there’s a compelling case that their strong performance will continue into 2026. For investors who want to stay invested in equities but are increasingly uneasy about lofty U.S. valuations, global markets offer a more appealing alternative. Many U.S. investors may not realize how strong non-U.S. performance has been in 2025, as headlines have been dominated by the “Magnificent Seven” and the AI-driven rally. Yet through Dec. 26, the S&P 500 is up 16.3%, while non-U.S. stocks have surged 33.1%, based on the MSCI All-Country World ex-U.S. index. A weaker U.S. dollar helped fuel some of that outperformance, boosting dollar-based returns for overseas assets. Even so, non-U.S. equities remain significantly cheaper than U.S. stocks after their rally. That valuation gap suggests non-U.S. markets could continue to outperform in 2026, even if the dollar stops falling. The contrast becomes even clearer when looking at cyclically adjusted CAPE ratios, which compare current market levels to the past 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. This valuation metric, popularized by economist Robert Shiller, highlights how stretched U.S. equities have become. According to Barclays Indices, the U.S. CAPE ratio is higher than those of roughly two dozen other global markets. On average, those countries trade at just over half the valuation of the U.S. Overvaluation warnings The CAPE ratio is just one of 10 valuation indicators tracked monthly for their ability to forecast long-term, inflation-adjusted returns. Today, all 10 point to the same conclusion: U.S. stocks are extremely overvalued. The latest readings place the average valuation percentile at 98%, meaning the market is more expensive than at nearly any other point in U.S. history. It’s difficult to envision a more cautionary signal. That leaves investors with a critical question: Will U.S. stocks once again defy gravity in 2026, or will far cheaper non-U.S. markets prove to be the safer — and stronger — bet? John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Samantha LaDuc: Rising Treasury Yields Could Be a Warning Sign for Stocks in 2026 Samantha LaDuc, founder of LaDucTrading, was among the market strategists who correctly anticipated this year’s S&P 500 trajectory — a sharp selloff followed by a strong rebound. A veteran trader since 2008, LaDuc warned clients in early December 2024 that equities were heading for a “bloodbath,” forecasting a roughly 20% decline in the first half of 2025. Her view was based on tariffs not being priced in and a weakening U.S. dollar. The equity pullback arrived on Liberation Day, while the dollar has yet to recover from its early-year slump. In a recent MarketWatch interview, LaDuc said she turned bullish around April 9, projecting an upside target of “hellbent on 6,666” for the S&P 500. By June, she outlined two potential paths: if the index could reach and hold above 6,100, she saw 7,000 as the next milestone. Sustained strength above 7,000, she said, could ultimately pave the way toward 8,200. The S&P 500 has already moved close to that level, recently topping out at 6,945.77. LaDuc has built a reputation for timely market calls. In 2022, she warned of an impending “tech wreck,” a year that proved difficult for the Nasdaq. In early 2024, she urged investors to stay invested in equities — advice that aligned with a record-setting year for the S&P 500. Looking ahead to 2026, LaDuc expects a challenging but upward-trending market. “My core theme is a recession into all-time highs,” she said. “Stocks can continue to rise even as unemployment increases.” She added that concerns about stagflation are already surfacing within the Federal Open Market Committee. For the S&P 500 to reach 8,200, LaDuc believes two forces must work together. The first is continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. With several major AI-related IPOs potentially arriving in 2026 — including OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic — she argues it’s difficult to envision a sustained market breakdown. The second factor is a weaker U.S. dollar. “A falling dollar is extremely supportive for inflationary assets and equities,” she said. Combined with AI-driven excitement, LaDuc believes this could fuel a melt-up toward the 8,200 level. She estimates current AI revenues at around $60 billion and says meaningful productivity gains and margin expansion — even if driven by layoffs — would be key to justifying higher equity valuations. That upside, however, could come alongside labor market stress and persistently high inflation. With Wall Street projecting a roughly 16% gain for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, LaDuc cautions that stocks are “priced for perfection.” In her view, elevated valuations leave little room for macroeconomic shocks. Her biggest concern for equities is rising Treasury yields. LaDuc sees the 10-year yield as a major risk, arguing that higher unemployment and inflation would push yields higher as investors demand greater term premiums. “Rising yields tend to pull capital away from growth assets and into safety,” she said. The key level she’s watching is 4.6%. “If yields reach that level and hold, the move higher likely continues,” she warned. Overall, LaDuc expects 2026 to be a “hold-your-nose” market — one where stocks grind higher but experience pullbacks due to stretched valuations. She also notes that midterm election years are typically supportive for equities, as policymakers prefer to avoid weak markets ahead of elections. Beyond stocks, LaDuc remains bullish on commodities, a stance she’s held since spring 2024. She describes the trend as “phenomenal,” particularly for miners, though she excludes oil. In April 2024, she made the contrarian call that crude would fall from around $80 a barrel into the $60–$40 range, easing energy costs for miners. Her long-term optimism on precious metals is driven by falling energy costs and a weaker U.S. dollar. “The big-picture trend in precious metals isn’t going away,” LaDuc said. “The only thing that would change it is the U.S. government balancing its budget — and the odds of that are slim.” John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Investors had plenty to smile about this Christmas as stocks, gold and silver all surged further into record territory. Markets delivered a holiday boost on Wednesday, with U.S. equities and precious metals extending their rallies. The S&P 500 posted a fresh record close during the shortened Christmas Eve session — its first such close on that day since 2013, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The benchmark ended at 6,932.05 and also set a new intraday high, its first on Christmas Eve since 2014, FactSet data showed. Gold and silver joined the rally, each touching new intraday records earlier in the session. The most active gold futures climbed to $4,555.10 an ounce, while silver futures jumped as high as $72.75, Dow Jones Market Data showed. Both metals later pulled back from those highs by the time the stock market closed at 1 p.m. Eastern. The gains cap a resilient year for markets. After weathering a period of volatility — including the tariff-driven selloff in April — stocks have powered higher in 2025, with the S&P 500 on pace for a third straight year of double-digit gains. As 2026 approaches, investors are increasingly focused on signs the U.S. economy may be regaining momentum, even as a soft labor market continues to fuel concerns about consumer health. “It’s been a good year,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “There was a lot of uncertainty coming into it. After Liberation Day, it looked like things could turn ugly. But the economy and the consumer held up better than expected, and S&P 500 earnings growth also surprised to the upside. That’s why we’re here.” Wednesday’s advance was broad-based. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, with energy the lone laggard, according to FactSet. After climbing steadily through the spring and summer, stocks hit turbulence in November when pressure on the artificial-intelligence trade caused the Nasdaq Composite to snap a seven-month winning streak. More recently, however, delayed economic data released after the government shutdown has reinforced expectations that the economy will land in a “Goldilocks” zone in 2026. “The economic data over the past few weeks has been mixed, allowing investors to remain confident the Fed will continue easing into 2026,” said Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth. “It’s not weak enough to spark recession fears and not strong enough to force the Fed to tighten or halt the easing cycle.” She added that oil prices holding below $60 a barrel have also helped support stocks by easing pressure on consumer spending. “All of these factors have pushed equities to new highs in recent weeks,” Adams said. The Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all finished higher on Wednesday as well, though each remains below recent record levels. Meanwhile, market volatility continued to retreat. The Cboe Volatility Index, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, slipped below 14 for the first time since Dec. 13, 2024, signaling a calm market mood heading into the holiday. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Dec. 26 is historically the market’s strongest trading day, according to Bespoke Investment Group. U.S. stocks rallied into the Christmas holiday on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting a new intraday record during the shortened Christmas Eve session. For investors, however, the real holiday gift from Wall Street often comes after Christmas. Bespoke Investment Group data show that Dec. 26 has been the most reliably positive session of the year for the S&P 500. Since 1953, when markets were open the day after Christmas, the index has declined only six times over 39 years — and never by more than 0.5%. When trading takes place on Dec. 26, the S&P 500 also records its strongest average gain of the year at 0.5%, along with the highest median gain at 0.4%. “Seasonal trends should never be the sole basis for bullish or bearish positioning, but this is an unusually consistent pattern,” Bespoke said in commentary shared with MarketWatch. Friday’s session marks the second day of the Santa Claus rally, the seven-day stretch covering the final five trading days of one year and the first two of the next. The rally carries extra importance this year after delivering negative returns in each of the past two years. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Santa has never skipped three years in a row. Stocks were broadly higher Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, the Nasdaq edging 0.2% higher, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading with a 0.6% gain. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com