Why Apple Is the Tech Stock to Watch This July, According to Fundstrat’s Mark Newton

Following two record-breaking sessions for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, markets are easing into the new quarter with signs of weakness. It’s a short, holiday-trimmed week, and investor fatigue is understandable amid political distractions like Trump’s tax and spending bill making its way through the Senate.

But historically, July has been a strong month for stocks in post-election years — and Fundstrat’s head of technical strategy, Mark Newton, sees that pattern possibly repeating.

In a new client note, Newton says the rally could continue into July before cooling in August. He sees the market broadening, with breakouts in the Dow and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) adding confirmation.

One stock he’s watching closely: Apple (AAPL).

Apple, down 18% year-to-date, has underperformed major tech peers — with only Tesla faring worse. Investors have been wary over weak AI progress and trade tensions. But Newton flags a potential shift. On Monday, Apple shares jumped over 2%, breaking out of a month-long slump and closing at their highest level since mid-May.

The bounce followed reports that Apple may adopt third-party AI tools for a new version of Siri, signaling a possible strategy pivot away from its in-house development — something Newton calls a “significant reversal.”

While it’s just one day of gains, Newton believes this move could be meaningful. Apple needs to rise above $214 to confirm a stronger rally, he says. So far, it hasn’t participated much in the S&P 500’s 27% rally since April.

Meanwhile, broader tech looks poised to test all-time highs. Newton points to bullish signs in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF (RSPT), which has rebounded from key 2024 support levels.

His forecast: tech may outperform through August, face resistance in September, then mount another leg higher in Q4.

As for Apple, Newton says its performance in July could determine whether tech’s recent momentum continues.

“Any strength from Apple here could extend tech’s lead,” Newton concludes.