Bullish Signal: Golden Cross Points to More Market Gains Ahead
The S&P 500 is kicking off the second half of 2025 on a strong note, flashing a bullish technical signal for the first time in more than two years.
On Tuesday, the index formed a golden cross, where the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day average—a widely followed momentum indicator that often signals a strong uptrend.
The last golden cross for the S&P 500 appeared in February 2023. Since then, the index has climbed over 48%, according to FactSet. This latest signal adds to a series of bullish developments, including a Zweig Breadth Thrust back in April—a rare indicator with a flawless track record of forecasting gains since 1982.
Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said the golden cross, combined with broadening market participation, points to a “healthy setup” for the second half of the year. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2025 around 6,600.
Historical data backs him up. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has posted positive one-year returns 71% of the time following a golden cross, averaging over 10%. More recent signals have been even stronger, with the past 20 crosses delivering average gains of 13% and an 85% success rate.
This time around, the golden cross comes as the S&P hovers just below Monday’s record close, adding momentum to a market already pushing all-time highs.
Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments said golden crosses have been far more reliable than death crosses, which occur when the 50-day average dips below the 200-day. The most recent death cross happened back in April—after much of the downturn had already played out.
Other major indexes and stocks are also flashing green lights. The Nasdaq Composite saw a golden cross on Monday, and Nvidia (NVDA) joined in on Friday, signaling continued strength in the AI-driven tech sector.
Meanwhile, small- and mid-cap stocks have started to rise—another sign that the rally is broadening.
Still, not all signs are rosy. Some indicators, like the gold-platinum price ratio, have turned bearish, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback.
On Tuesday, markets were mixed: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped modestly after recent highs, while the Dow and Russell 2000 moved higher.
John Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis.
DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets.
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