Market News Archives – Page 9 of 125

Stocks at Risk if Key Levels Break

John Paul / November 14, 2025

Mark Newton Flags Weak Market Breadth as Stocks Stay Under Pressure U.S. equities remained on the defensive early Friday after Thursday delivered the market’s worst drop in more than a month. The Nasdaq Composite slid 2.3%, and tech stocks look poised to drag the market lower again as concerns over stretched valuations and a slower-than-hoped pace of Fed rate cuts unsettle investors. When fundamentals lose traction, technical signals tend to matter more. Citi strategists note that their “When Generals Fail” indicator still points to a constructive long-term trend for mega-cap tech. Among the so-called Mag 7, only Meta is currently below its 200-day moving average — a sign the broader outlook remains intact. But Mark Newton, Fundstrat’s head of technical strategy, is not as relaxed. He’s focused on market breadth — the share of stocks rising along with the indexes — which has started to weaken. Newton points out that the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks sitting within 20% of their 12-month highs has begun to roll over, much as it did late last year and ahead of the 2022 market peak. At around 50%, he says this measure needs to firm up and hold through year-end. Continued deterioration would be “problematic for equities.” “Markets usually show internal weakness before corrective periods,” Newton cautions. “This time looks no different.” A potential catalyst that could reverse the tide: Nvidia. The AI bellwether, which closed Thursday at $186.86, reports earnings on Nov. 19. Strong numbers and upbeat guidance could provide a broader boost. Newton adds that he wouldn’t turn bearish on the stock unless it breaks below $178.91, last Friday’s low. He also highlights key levels that must hold: A break below these early-November lows would open the door to increased volatility before markets stabilize. Newton still expects a December bounce, though he’s less convinced that new highs will come immediately. Still, his broader tone remains constructive: while market breadth is a current challenge, subdued sentiment makes a compelling case for buying dips during a seasonally strong period. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Investors Pivot: From Tech Titans to Value Winners

John Paul / November 13, 2025

Investors Shift Gears: From Tech Titans to Value Plays After years of chasing high-flying tech stocks, investors are now turning to the market’s long-overlooked “old economy” names. Sectors like healthcare and industrials — once laggards — are suddenly back in the spotlight. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged past 48,000 for the first time in history, logging a second straight record close. Optimism over a potential end to the longest U.S. government shutdown helped lift the blue-chip index, said Sam Klar, portfolio manager at GMO Domestic Resilience ETF. “The main theme is: Value is back,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, noting strong performances from healthcare and industrial stocks. While the Dow soared, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.26%, extending its recent underperformance. The Dow has now outpaced the Nasdaq by 2.38 percentage points over the past two sessions — its strongest two-day lead since February. The AI Trade Loses Steam After dominating markets for much of the past year, AI-driven tech stocks are showing cracks. Momentum names like Oklo Inc. (OKLO) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) have stumbled, while value sectors have gained traction. “Earlier this year, it felt like AI stocks could do no wrong,” said Klar. “Now the market’s asking, ‘How good is good enough?’ That uncertainty is healthy — and overdue.” Some of the shift may simply reflect profit-taking, said Cox. “It’s a responsible reallocation of capital,” he added. Shutdown Hopes Buoy Sentiment Markets were also encouraged as Congress neared a deal to reopen the federal government. Historically, shutdowns have had little lasting effect on equities, and stocks often rally once the standoff ends, noted Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. Still, the S&P 500 is off to one of its weakest Novembers in years, raising doubts about whether the usual year-end rally can gain traction. Rotation or Reset Ahead? Some analysts caution against calling this a full-blown trend. Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY, said the move looks more like profit-taking than a permanent shift out of tech. Large investors — including pension and foreign funds — haven’t yet changed their allocations in a meaningful way. “This rotation is about surviving year-end without getting hit on valuations,” Savage said. Much depends on the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and whether another rate cut is on the table. “Show me a Fed cut and stronger growth,” Savage added, “and I’ll tell you how 2026 looks.” For now, it’s less of a market correction and more of a rebalancing act — a reminder that even in an AI-driven era, value still has a place at the table. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Goldman Sachs Cautions on Market Concentration Risks

John Paul / November 12, 2025

Goldman Sachs Sees S&P 500 at 7,600 by 2026, But Warns of Tech Fatigue Goldman Sachs strategists are sounding a cautious note on Wall Street’s biggest winners, warning that the “superstar” tech stocks driving recent gains may eventually lose momentum. In one of the first forecasts for next year, Goldman projects the S&P 500 to reach 7,600 by the end of 2026, an 11% rise from current levels. Looking further out, the bank expects the index to deliver a 6.5% annualized return over the next decade — slightly below its 7.7% forecast for global equities and near the 27th percentile of historical returns since 1990. Their 10-year outlook includes a range of 3% to 10% annualized returns. The base case reflects 6% earnings-per-share growth, offset by a 1% drop in valuations and a 1.4% dividend yield, with revenue growth expected to track nominal GDP. A softer U.S. dollar could also provide a modest lift. Goldman notes that corporate profit margins remain near record highs at 13%, up from 5% in 1990, thanks to globalization, lower interest rates, and reduced corporate taxes — tailwinds that may not repeat in the next decade. The bank’s valuation forecast assumes a 4.5% nominal Treasury yield by 2035 and a forward P/E of 21, down roughly 10% from current levels. Still, the strategists see a major wild card in market concentration. The dominance of a few mega-cap tech firms has powered the market higher, but if their profitability or valuations falter — and no new leaders emerge — broader returns could suffer. On the upside, AI could prove to be a powerful growth engine, potentially lifting earnings-per-share growth to 9%, well above Goldman’s base forecast. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Wells Fargo Says Tech Rally Looks Too Hot to Handle

John Paul / November 11, 2025

Wells Fargo Warns: Tech Sector’s Sky-High Expectations Could Lead to Trouble The AI trade — powered by heavyweights like Nvidia — bounced back to start the week, but renewed concerns over CoreWeave are cooling the excitement. Investors now find themselves torn between chasing the AI boom and fearing another bubble, reminiscent of the dot-com era. That uneasy balance prompted the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) to downgrade the S&P 500 Information Technology sector — home to Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, and other AI leaders — from favorable to neutral. The main reason: valuations have gotten too rich. According to Douglas Beath, WFII’s global investment strategist, the sector surged nearly 60% since April, outperforming the broader S&P 500 by over 25%. While AI momentum continues to drive sales, profits, and cash flow, Beath warns that overly optimistic sentiment makes the sector susceptible to disappointment if earnings results fall even slightly short of expectations. Beath also points to lingering U.S.–China trade tensions and growing concerns over the payoff from massive AI capital spending. Investors are becoming uneasy about whether these record-level investments will deliver the returns needed to justify lofty stock prices. Although a correction may be temporary, WFII advises taking some profits and trimming tech exposure back to market weight. Instead, the firm recommends rotating into industrials, utilities, and financials — three sectors that can still benefit from the AI infrastructure boom but come with more reasonable valuations. In Beath’s view, the message is clear: AI’s growth story remains intact — but investors may want to cool their enthusiasm for tech stocks. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Is the Job Market Still Strong?

John Paul / November 10, 2025

Layoffs Rise, But Jobless Claims Stay Low: What’s Really Going On in the U.S. Labor Market The U.S. job market isn’t collapsing — but it’s certainly losing momentum. And with fresh data pointing to a surge in layoffs, investors are growing uneasy. Layoffs Surge to Pandemic-Era Levels A new report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that announced layoffs tripled in October, climbing to 153,074 — the highest since the pandemic began. That brings the total number of announced job cuts this year to over 1.1 million. There was one bright spot: hiring plans improved, rising by the most in more than a year. Still, companies are expected to bring on fewer seasonal workers this holiday season — a sign of caution heading into year-end. Economists warn against reading too much into these figures. The Challenger data mostly reflects large corporations that publicly announce layoffs, not the smaller and midsize firms that make up most of the economy. Historically, around 20 million Americans lose their jobs every year, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Hiring Slows, But Jobs Are Still Being Added Private payroll data from ADP showed that U.S. businesses added 42,000 jobs in October — the biggest gain in three months. It’s a modest increase, but it suggests that the labor market is still managing to create more jobs than it’s losing, at least for now. Unemployment Claims Stay Steady Even as layoffs rise, jobless claims remain near historic lows. In the week ending Nov. 1, new claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 229,000, up from 220,000 the prior week. According to Citi Research, these numbers are still consistent with a stable job market — though the recent uptick in announced layoffs could push claims higher in the coming months. Economists generally place more confidence in jobless-claims data because it’s broader and timelier, covering all 53 states and territories. Signs Point to Stability — For Now Other indicators support the view that the labor market remains steady: But the pace of hiring is clearly slowing. Job postings on Indeed have dropped to their lowest level since 2021, signaling that fewer companies are expanding. Economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM summed it up: “The once ‘low-hire, low-fire’ labor market is shifting toward ‘low-hire, more-fire.’” The Big Unknown The government shutdown has delayed the release of key BLS employment reports, making it harder to assess the true state of the labor market. With the September and October reports still on hold, analysts may have to wait until early January — when December data is expected — for a clearer view. Until then, investors are left navigating a job market that looks steady on the surface, but increasingly fragile underneath. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Why Stocks With Momentum Are Back in Charge

John Paul / November 6, 2025

In October, investors turned back toward strategies favoring fast-growing companies instead of those with cheaper valuations. As government bond yields declined across Europe, the U.K., and the U.S., the preference for growth stocks became clear. According to Panmure Liberum strategist Joachim Klement, growth stocks are poised to lead performance in 2026 across all three markets, with bond yields—rather than earnings growth—remaining the primary driver. Klement noted that from 2012 onward, U.S. value stocks endured a “lost decade” amid near-zero interest rates, as policymakers kept borrowing costs artificially low to stimulate post-crisis growth. However, following the inflation surge and rate hikes of 2022, value stocks had a strong rebound. That momentum faded in October when U.S. 10-year bond yields slipped below 4%, causing value stocks to lag by 1.9%, regardless of whether measured by price-to-earnings or price-to-book ratios. Income stocks also fell behind by 1.5%, while companies with strong earnings momentum gained 1.4%. Despite the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs during the month, Klement reported no evidence of market exuberance or excessive optimism. His firm’s sentiment indicator returned to neutral levels, suggesting the U.S. market remains slightly undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Looking ahead, Klement sees growth stocks leading not only in the U.S. but also in Europe and the U.K. The sectors with the most upward earnings revisions in October included resources, banks, and financial services. Taking a longer-term view, he pointed out that historically, the cheapest U.K. stocks and those with high dividend yields have produced stronger returns, though that advantage reversed last month as yields fell. He also highlighted encouraging signs from the U.K.’s IPO market, which is showing life after years of stagnation. In 2025, three IPOs raised £850 million, already surpassing 2024’s total of £600 million. This recovery supports renewed optimism for growth-oriented companies, reinforced by the 1.2% outperformance of momentum stocks in October. In Europe, easing rates—particularly after recent volatility in France—caused value stocks to underperform growth by 80 basis points in October, marking a reversal of the trend that began in late 2021. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com