A key U.S. stock index has remained above its 20-day moving average, underscoring the market’s resilience. Japan is also in focus Wednesday after reaching a tentative trade agreement with the U.S., while speculation swirls over whether its prime minister will soon depart. The tariff news has fueled optimism heading into the Aug. 1 deadline — a date even President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggest is flexible. Carson Group’s chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick, points out a striking milestone: The S&P 500 (SPX) has now closed above its 20-day moving average for 60 straight sessions. Aside from a brief scare on June 20, the streak has remained unbroken. Historically, runs this long have occurred only four times since 1950, with average gains of 20% to 26% in the year that followed. Detrick’s analysis shows eight similar streaks overall, but this marks the first instance in the 21st century. While one exception in 1965 saw the market decline a year later, the typical outcome was a median gain of 10.4% and an average gain of 9.2%. “This is yet another clue this bull market still has legs,” Detrick said. Some analysts caution, however, that such strength could also signal overheating — a pattern recently noted in the Nasdaq-100 as well.

What Will Drive Stocks Higher Now? Strategist Sees Bullish Fatigue Setting In Since 2012, the S&P 500 has been on a mostly steady climb—an easy reason for investors to keep holding on. But recently, it’s not just that stocks are rising; it’s that sellers have all but vanished. And that, says Andrew Thrasher of Thrasher Analytics, could be a red flag. In his latest research, Thrasher found that downside activity in the market has hit unusually low levels. “We’re not seeing much volume in declining stocks,” he told MarketWatch. “There’s no real capitulation or heavy selling happening—just relentless buying. That’s often a sign of overly bullish sentiment.” His data shows that in early July, just 39% of trading volume came from declining stocks—well below the 42% threshold that has historically signaled a near-term pullback. Similar setups preceded drops in 2020, 2019, and 2016. Now, that ratio has nudged higher to 44%, a sign that sellers may finally be stepping back in. “We’re starting to see more downside volume, fewer new highs, and generally weaker participation from individual stocks,” Thrasher said. “It’s not falling apart—but it’s thinning out.” Thrasher, who helps manage over $800 million at The Financial Enhancement Group, says the market still looks “structurally sound,” but he questions what catalyst could drive the next big move up. Lingering tariff risks and the potential for rising inflation could pressure consumers and shift market sentiment. While he continues to focus on price action first and foremost, Thrasher warns that overly one-sided bullishness can’t last forever. “At extremes, the market becomes like a teeter-totter—too many people on one side, and it can’t move.”

The High-Beta Frenzy: A Warning Sign for Markets As U.S. stocks hover near record highs, enthusiasm for high-volatility names is boiling over — and that’s making some analysts nervous. CNBC’s Jim Cramer just unveiled his latest acronym: PARC — Palantir, Applovin, Robinhood, and Coinbase — a group of high-beta, momentum-driven stocks. Critics were quick to point out that “PARC” spelled backward is a warning in itself. More importantly, this surge into high-beta stocks is setting off alarms on Wall Street. JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas says investor positioning has hit extreme levels. In fact, he notes this is the third major “crowding” event this year: According to JPMorgan, the current high-beta crowding is in the 100th percentile — meaning it’s as extreme as it gets — and the speed of the move is unprecedented, rising from the 25th to 100th percentile in just three months, the fastest in 30 years. Short interest has also collapsed, indicating that investors aren’t hedging for downside risk. “This level of positioning reflects complacency and presents a risk not just to these speculative stocks but to the broader market,” Lakos-Bujas warned. Many of the most crowded names are retail favorites, including: So, what now? JPMorgan suggests rotating into low-volatility stocks, which underperformed after peaking in April but now offer compelling risk/reward. With upcoming tariff deadlines (Aug. 1), seasonal market weakness, and stretched investor sentiment, defensive names could shine. Their top picks include: In a market chasing risky bets, the safer plays may soon have their moment again.