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Bulls Beware: Why the S&P 500’s Support Break Could Spell Trouble

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) reached a peak near 4600 in late July, marking the start of a downtrend that persists. Recently, it faced a significant test of support around 4330, and this support held firmly. According to this measure, the bull market remains intact on the SPX chart. While there is another support level at 4200, it’s the 4330 level that is crucial for maintaining a “core” bullish stance. Despite several instances of oversold conditions, the ongoing rally could be categorized as an oversold bounce. Typically, such rallies tend to reach or slightly surpass the declining 20-day Moving Average before fading. With NVIDIA’s robust earnings reported on Wednesday, SPX is likely to surpass its declining 20-day Moving Average on Thursday. During the recent pullback, SPX dipped below its -4σ “modified Bollinger Band” (mBB), which completed the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal from late July (indicated by a red “S” on the SPX chart). Furthermore, moving below the -4σ Band may set the stage for a potential new MVB buy signal. Although a “classic” mBB buy signal appeared recently in SPX’s activity, these signals have often produced false alarms in the past. Therefore, confirmation through follow-through, culminating in the MVB buy signal, is awaited and could materialize shortly. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to climb, maintaining their sell signals until they reverse and start descending. Interestingly, even during market rallies, significant put buying persists, contributing to the elevation of these ratios. Throughout most of August, market breadth has been weak, causing breadth oscillators to sustain sell signals. Despite reaching deeply oversold conditions, it requires at least two days of positive breadth to transition them from this state to a buy signal – a condition that hasn’t yet been met. Over the past eight trading days, New 52-week Lows on the NYSE have outpaced New Highs. While this nullified the long-standing buy signal from this indicator, it now stands neutral. A sell signal necessitates New Lows exceeding 100 issues for two consecutive days. Despite the recent surge in New Lows, it hasn’t been sufficient to trigger a sell signal. These indicators, often referred to as “market internals,” align with SPX’s decline, reflecting predominantly negative sentiment. In contrast, volatility metrics have largely remained subdued, reflecting a bullish outlook for stocks. The “spike peak” buy signal from VIX a few weeks ago still holds, alongside the persistence of the intermediate-term trend of the VIX buy signal. This latter signal would be invalidated if VIX closes above its declining 200-day Moving Average – a level it briefly touched this week. Volatility derivatives, in terms of the upward-sloping term structures of VIX futures and CBOE Volatility Indices, retain their bullish disposition. Moreover, VIX futures trade at substantial premiums compared to VIX. Hence, we’re maintaining a low-delta “core” bullish position as long as SPX remains above 4330, while making trading decisions based on other indicators. SPX has moved above its -3σ Band, triggering a “classic” modified Bollinger Band buy signal. However, for a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) buy signal to materialize, SPX would need to reach 4459 or higher. If SPX trades at 4459 at any point, consider buying 1 SPY Oct (20th) at-the-money call and selling 1 SPY Oct (20th) call with a striking price 18 points higher. To manage the relatively higher cost of these October options, we’re using a bull spread. This signal holds unless SPX closes below its -4σ Band, which would negate the signal. The trade aims for SPX to touch the +4σ Band. New Recommendation: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) A recent weighted put-call ratio sell signal has emerged for ADM. Since the stock fell below support, we’re acting on this signal. Consider buying 3 ADM Oct (20th) 82.5 puts in line with the market. ADM: 81.16 Oct (20th) 82.5 put: 3.00 bid, offered at 3.20 Follow-up action: All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted. For SPY spreads, we’re following a “standard” rolling procedure: if the underlying hits the short strike in any vertical bull or bear spread, roll the entire spread. Maintain the same expiration and retain the distance between strikes unless instructed otherwise. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Analyzing the Odds: Will the Stock Market Crash?

The probability of a stock market crash on par with the 1987 event in the upcoming months seems to be significantly exaggerated, even as contrarians find reasons to smile. While the fear of a crash is justified due to the buzz about a potential market bubble, the reality is that the likelihood of a crash similar to 1987 is quite low—just 0.33%. We can assess the general sentiment through a survey conducted by Robert Shiller of Yale University, where participants indicate the chances of a crash with less than a 10% probability within six months. The latest survey indicates that 33.9% of respondents fall into this category, revealing that 66.1% perceive the risk as higher than 10%. This perception has been on an upward trend, with a rise from 64% in 2015 to 74% today in the 24-month moving average, slightly below last year’s peak of 77%. The real probabilities have been studied by Xavier Gabaix of Harvard University and researchers from Boston University’s Center for Polymer Studies, revealing a formula predicting crash frequencies. When applying this to the one-day 22.6% decline on Black Monday in 1987, the probability of such an event is 0.33%. The heightened concerns among investors have roots in the occurrence of two bear markets in rapid succession—early 2020 and 2022. This occurrence is rare and has cast a shadow on long-term investor outlooks. Psychological studies by Camelia Kuhnen from the University of North Carolina underscore how losses trigger more pessimism compared to the optimism generated by gains. This tendency, termed the “pessimism bias,” persists even when markets recover well. Shiller’s crash-confidence index, potentially a contrarian indicator, has shown that higher worries about a crash correlate with better market performance over one-, three-, and five-year periods. While the crash-confidence index may not predict short-term market moves, its strength lies in forecasting robust market performance over the span of several years. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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The Dark Side of Buybacks: Examining Wealth Inequality and Innovation Suppression

“Reevaluating Stock Buybacks: A Force behind Wealth Inequality and Innovation Suppression?” An ongoing debate questions the role of stock buybacks in perpetuating wealth inequality and stifling innovation within the U.S. economy. Should there be a definitive ban on these practices, especially when executed as open-market repurchases? According to William Lazonick, an esteetock marketmed figure hailing from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and also the President of the Academic-Industry Research Network, the answer is a resounding “yes.” Lazonick, a long-standing critic of corporate stock buybacks, recently unveiled his book “Investing in Innovation: Confronting Predatory Value Extraction in the U.S. Corporation,” in which he contends that these buybacks form a critical component of what he labels as “predatory value extraction.” The concept of predatory value extraction centers on the idea that senior executives, Wall Street financiers, and hedge fund managers manage to extract a disproportionately larger amount of value from corporations where they hold shares, in comparison to their actual contributions to value creation within those organizations. However, the ramifications extend beyond this. These stock buybacks have inadvertently rendered American corporations more susceptible to foreign competitors, particularly in sectors critical to national security and productivity, like aviation, communications, semiconductors, and alternative energy. This vulnerability stems from businesses opting to allocate profits to buybacks instead of investing in innovation and infrastructure. As a result, these companies are compelled to procure essential technologies from foreign rivals, predominantly in Asia. Before the widespread adoption of buybacks in the 1980s, companies typically reinvested the bulk of their profits to foster growth or reward employees for their contributions to value creation. This narrative shifted drastically as buybacks gained momentum, becoming a popular strategy for elevating share prices by reducing the number of outstanding shares. Between 2012 and 2021, the 474 firms listed in the S&P 500 (as of January 2022) channeled a staggering $5.7 trillion into the stock market through buybacks, equating to 55% of their collective net income. Additionally, another $4.2 trillion was distributed as dividends, consuming an additional 41% of net income. While dividends offer benefits to all shareholders, buybacks predominantly benefit those selling shares, including senior managers whose compensation often involves stock holdings and hedge fund managers aiming to capitalize on market timing. Lazonick’s book offers various examples illustrating the shift from a strategy focused on “retain and invest” to “dominate and distribute,” and its consequences for the workforce. The table below highlights the top 20 purchasers of their own stock from 2010 to 2019, along with distributions made during pandemic years. Eleven companies followed the “dominate and distribute” approach before the pandemic, encompassing major players like Apple, Oracle, Microsoft, Cisco, Walmart, Intel, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson, Amgen, Qualcomm, and Gilead. These companies utilized profits from their commanding market positions to bolster stock prices. On the other hand, seven firms including Exxon Mobil, IBM, Procter & Gamble, General Electric, Merck, McDonald’s, and Boeing pursued a “downsize and distribute” strategy, allocating funds to shareholders as they downsized their workforces. The remaining two, Pfizer and Disney, ceased buybacks in 2019 to return to a “retain and invest” strategy. Lazonick underscores that companies such as Disney, Home Depot, McDonald’s, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart employ a significant number of low-wage workers. These workers could potentially benefit from substantial pay raises funded by capital allocated to buybacks. Elevating wages and benefits for low-paid workers at profitable firms can have a ripple effect, boosting incomes across the broader economy. Even the pharmaceutical sector, represented by companies like Amgen, Gilead Sciences, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and Pfizer, faces scrutiny. Despite advocating for high drug prices to support research and development, these firms distributed a significant 110% of their net income to shareholders and share sellers between 2012 and 2021. Buybacks alone accounted for 55% of net income, surpassing other sectors. Lazonick also highlights the technology sector, using Cisco Systems as an example of a company favoring buybacks over investment in learning that fuels innovative communication-infrastructure products. Since 2001, Cisco’s management has allocated a staggering $159.7 billion to buybacks, equivalent to 93% of net income. Concurrently, the U.S. has fallen behind global competitors in areas like 5G and the Internet of Things. Apple’s trajectory follows a similar narrative. Initially relying on Samsung Electronics to fabricate chips for iPhones, Apple shifted its outsourcing to TSMC, catalyzing the latter’s ascent to prominence in advanced nanometer chip fabrication. According to Lazonick, five steps are crucial to curbing predatory value extraction: The implications are substantial. An Oxfam report revealed that by 2022, inflation had eroded the earnings value for 32% of the U.S. labor force, leaving them with hourly wages of $15 or less. In his 2022 State of the Union address, President Joe Biden proposed a 4% tax on buybacks. However, Lazonick argues that this is insufficient. If the administration opts for taxation instead of a ban, Lazonick suggests a 40% surcharge, accompanied by a prominent message on corporate repurchasers’ websites: “STOCK BUYBACKS DESTROY THE MIDDLE CLASS.” John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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Market News

Nasdaq Futures React to Nvidia Earnings with a Jump; Dow Futures Experience Dip

In the early hours of Thursday, U.S. stock index futures demonstrated a positive trend, led by Nasdaq futures, as Nvidia’s exceptional quarterly earnings performance exceeded high expectations. In contrast, Dow futures experienced a slight decline due to a drop in Boeing shares. Here’s a snapshot of the current stock-index futures trading: In the trading session of the previous day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a gain of 184 points, marking a 0.54% increase to reach 34,473. The S&P 500 saw a rise of 48 points, translating to a 1.1% increase and reaching 4436. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite gained 215 points, presenting a notable 1.59% surge and reaching 13,721. Key market dynamics include: With the Jackson Hole central bankers’ economic policy symposium commencing on Thursday, the focal point remains on the upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. In addition, investors were privy to a fresh batch of U.S. economic data on Thursday, including weekly jobless benefit claims numbers. This data revealed a decline of 10,000 claims, reaching a three-week low of 230,000, providing further evidence of a robust labor market. Data on durable-goods orders for July indicated a 0.5% increase, excluding specific sectors like transportation and autos. Notable companies in focus include: John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

U.S. Stock Futures Inch Upward as Bond Yields Dip; Nvidia Earnings Awaited

On Wednesday, U.S. stock futures showed a slight upward movement, coinciding with a decline in bond yields. All eyes were on Nvidia Corp. as investors eagerly awaited the company’s earnings report. Nvidia, a leading player in the artificial intelligence software realm, was scheduled to release its results after the market’s closing. Key Highlights: Market Dynamics: The uptick in stock futures coincided with a reduction in bond yields, both in Europe and the U.S. This was triggered by news of a larger-than-expected contraction in eurozone economic activity, leading to a 33-month low. However, the day’s primary focus was on Nvidia’s (NVDA, -2.77%) earnings outcome, eagerly anticipated after the market’s close. With Nvidia’s shares having surged by 212% in the current year, in contrast to the S&P 500’s gain of 14.3%, the company epitomized the enthusiasm surrounding major tech stocks and the excitement around artificial intelligence, both of which had been instrumental in driving up equity indices for much of 2023. The reception of Nvidia’s financial results and projections was expected to significantly shape the short-term market sentiment. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, commented, “Investors will focus on whether Nvidia’s Q2 sales meet the $11 billion estimate. Anything less than absolutely fantastic could trigger a sharp downside correction in Nvidia’s stock price which rallied 345% since the October dip.” Traders were anticipating a potential 10% movement in Nvidia’s shares for the remainder of the week, as indicated by the pricing of the company’s stock options. Susannah Streeter, Head of Money and Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted, “A jolt [of] volatility is set to be sparked by the chip giant’s numbers and outlook.” Economic Updates and Corporate Focus: The day’s U.S. economic updates included the S&P services and manufacturing PMIs for August, set for release at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, followed by the July new home sales report at 10 a.m. Key Companies in the Limelight: John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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Unlocking the Potential of Intraday Trading: Navigating the Fast-Paced World of Day Trading

In the ever-evolving landscape of finance, new strategies continuously emerge, reshaping the way we approach markets. Among these strategies, Intraday Trading has gained prominence as a dynamic and fast-paced approach that captures short-term market moves. In this comprehensive guide, we delve into the core concepts, strategies, and benefits of intraday trading. Intraday trading, commonly referred to as day trading, involves the purchase and sale of financial assets within a single trading day. Unlike traditional investing, where positions are held for prolonged periods, intraday traders capitalize on rapid price fluctuations. Their goal is to seize short-term opportunities and leverage market movements for potential profit. Why Opt for Intraday Trading? Leveraging Short-Term Price Movements: Intraday traders closely analyze price charts and employ technical analysis tools to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. This strategy enables them to capitalize on both upward and downward price swings, making the most of market volatility. Actionable Insights: Constant monitoring of price movements offers valuable insights into market trends and patterns. This continuous observation empowers traders to better comprehend how securities behave within a single trading session, enhancing decision-making and refining trading strategies. Increased Liquidity: Intraday trading adds liquidity to the market as traders actively buy and sell throughout the day. This heightened trading volume fosters a more dynamic market environment, facilitating seamless trade execution and mitigating transaction costs. ⚖️ Effective Risk Management: By closing positions before the trading day ends, intraday traders evade the risks associated with overnight news or events that might impact security prices. Tight stop-loss orders further protect their capital from potential losses. Mastering the Basics of Intraday Trading For newcomers to the stock trading universe, intraday trading may appear intricate at first glance. However, at its core, it involves buying and selling stocks within the same trading day. Intraday traders strive to exploit short-term price movements, seeking profits through rapid and calculated trades. Buying and Selling Stocks in One Day: Intraday trading entails executing trades within the span of a single trading day. Traders meticulously analyze stock prices, historical performance, and indicators to make well-informed decisions. They establish long positions (anticipating price rise) or short positions (anticipating price drop) and place orders accordingly. Technical Analysis and Indicators: Technical analysis plays a pivotal role in intraday trading. Traders leverage various indicators and chart patterns to assess price movements and identify potential entry and exit points. Moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are commonly used tools to evaluate trends and volatility. Strategies for Success: Intraday traders adopt diverse strategies to navigate the market: Pros and Cons of Intraday Trading Pros: ✔️ High Profit Potential: Successful strategies can lead to substantial gains. ✔️ Mitigated Overnight Risk: Positions are closed before market closure, reducing exposure to overnight events. ✔️ Higher Intraday Leverage: Traders can access more leverage for intraday trading, increasing potential returns. Cons: ❌ Inherent Risk: Trading involves risk, and not all traders achieve success. ❌ High Capital Requirements: Complying with regulations necessitates a substantial account balance. Embarking on Your Intraday Trading Journey Intraday trading offers exciting opportunities for those who master its techniques and strategies. As you venture into this fast-paced world, it’s crucial to build a solid foundation of knowledge, refine your strategies, and practice prudent risk management. Seek guidance from seasoned traders and financial advisors to navigate the complexities and maximize your chances of success. Remember, intraday trading is a journey that demands patience, perseverance, and continuous learning. By harnessing the power of short-term market movements, you can potentially unlock a pathway to financial growth and empowerment. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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