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Buying pressure on the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached historic levels across multiple time frames, according to SentimenTrader. In a recent note, Jason Goepfert, senior research analyst, pointed out that the Dow has risen in 152 of the past 250 trading days—an impressive win rate of nearly 61%. The only other times this level of consistency occurred were in April 2010 and May 2018, both of which preceded several months of volatile trading. This momentum, however, extends beyond the short term. Over the past 100 weeks, the Dow has climbed in just over 60% of them—a solid recovery after a tough 2022, though not an extreme figure relative to the last 40 years. Additionally, the index has risen in 63% of the past 60 months and 80% of the past 15 years, both on the higher end of historical performance. “The buying pressure isn’t limited to one or two time frames,” Goepfert explained. The current level ranks in the top 6% of all readings since 1900, and excluding the tech bubble of 1995-2000, it would be in the top 2%. In the past, extreme upside momentum has sometimes led to sector exhaustion, particularly in utilities, but the Dow itself has generally fared well. Goepfert noted that when the average of rising periods across different time frames exceeded 66%, losses were rare, and the Dow often posted strong gains over the next nine months. Goepfert also highlighted that the Dow has risen at least 60% of the time across daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods—a rare occurrence that has only happened six times. While returns following this signal have been mixed, particularly due to the 2018 global financial crisis, these signals have typically been followed by some continued gains, albeit short-lived. In the two instances when the Dow showed both of these signals—once in 1959 and again in 2017-18—the index extended its rise for several months before hitting a period of stagnation. The latter lasted until the market recovery from the pandemic. “The buying pressure across time frames is truly historic,” Goepfert concluded. “While this has generally been a positive signal for the next 6-9 months, the longer-term outlook is less clear. The late 1990s tech boom is the only precedent of sustained momentum, and bulls are hoping the current AI revolution will deliver similar results. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Analysts are confident that Nvidia’s new Blackwell chip lineup is positioning the company for a strong financial performance next year. While Nvidia’s most recent earnings report didn’t exceed forecasts as significantly as in prior quarters, many on Wall Street believe the company is set to outperform moving forward. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse sees Nvidia as having the highest potential for upside among the companies they track, largely due to the anticipated success of the Blackwell chip. Nvidia expects to generate “several billion” dollars in revenue from the product in the January quarter, with Wall Street estimates hovering around $4 billion. Muse projects Nvidia’s January-quarter revenue could reach $37 billion, and the April-quarter could hit $41 billion, both approximately $1 billion above current forecasts. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has described demand for the Blackwell chip as “insane,” and Muse believes this demand, combined with Nvidia’s track record of execution, could lead to a significant boost in revenue. He called this upcoming product cycle Nvidia’s most impactful yet, reaffirming the company as their “TOP PICK.” Nvidia’s stock continued its upward momentum on Tuesday, gaining 4% and marking five straight days of growth. The stock is now just 2% below its all-time high. Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein noted that both long-term and hedge fund investors are becoming more optimistic about Nvidia’s prospects in 2025, expecting Blackwell’s demand to far exceed supply. Additional excitement was fueled by comments from Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd., a manufacturer of AI servers, which also pointed to robust Blackwell demand in a Bloomberg interview. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas points out that the financial sector is “much more than just banks,” as investors await JPMorgan’s third-quarter earnings report, expected Friday. Last week, all three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains for the fourth straight week, driven by a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The financial sector of the S&P 500 rose about 1%, while energy stocks jumped 7% as concerns grew over oil supply risks due to the conflict in the Middle East. As earnings season begins, investors are closely watching JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, set to release third-quarter results on October 11. According to a DataTrek Research note, the financial sector’s earnings outlook isn’t particularly strong, with analysts forecasting a slight 0.4% decline from last year, primarily due to an expected 12% drop in bank earnings. However, Colas stresses that the financial sector includes much more than just banks. Non-bank industries, which make up 76% of the sector, are more influential on overall performance. These subsectors include financial services, capital markets, insurance, and consumer finance. The breakdown of weights is as follows: DataTrek sees large-cap financials as a diverse way to play continued U.S. economic growth. While early bank earnings can offer some insight, Colas notes that they represent just a small part of the financial sector’s overall story, with non-bank subsectors expected to show year-over-year earnings growth. So far in 2024, the U.S. stock market has performed well, with the S&P 500 up 19.4% through Monday, while the financial sector has outpaced it slightly with a 19.8% gain. However, the financial sector has fallen 0.5% in October, while energy has surged 6.5%, reflecting concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East. On Monday, U.S. markets closed lower, with energy being the only S&P 500 sector to end the session in the green. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com