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nvidia
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Nvidia Stock Soars: Why Wall Street Predicts Growth

Analysts are confident that Nvidia’s new Blackwell chip lineup is positioning the company for a strong financial performance next year. While Nvidia’s most recent earnings report didn’t exceed forecasts as significantly as in prior quarters, many on Wall Street believe the company is set to outperform moving forward. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse sees Nvidia as having the highest potential for upside among the companies they track, largely due to the anticipated success of the Blackwell chip. Nvidia expects to generate “several billion” dollars in revenue from the product in the January quarter, with Wall Street estimates hovering around $4 billion. Muse projects Nvidia’s January-quarter revenue could reach $37 billion, and the April-quarter could hit $41 billion, both approximately $1 billion above current forecasts. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has described demand for the Blackwell chip as “insane,” and Muse believes this demand, combined with Nvidia’s track record of execution, could lead to a significant boost in revenue. He called this upcoming product cycle Nvidia’s most impactful yet, reaffirming the company as their “TOP PICK.” Nvidia’s stock continued its upward momentum on Tuesday, gaining 4% and marking five straight days of growth. The stock is now just 2% below its all-time high. Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein noted that both long-term and hedge fund investors are becoming more optimistic about Nvidia’s prospects in 2025, expecting Blackwell’s demand to far exceed supply. Additional excitement was fueled by comments from Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd., a manufacturer of AI servers, which also pointed to robust Blackwell demand in a Bloomberg interview. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

S&P 500
Market News

S&P 500 Financials Hit Summer Highs Before Earnings

DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas points out that the financial sector is “much more than just banks,” as investors await JPMorgan’s third-quarter earnings report, expected Friday. Last week, all three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains for the fourth straight week, driven by a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The financial sector of the S&P 500 rose about 1%, while energy stocks jumped 7% as concerns grew over oil supply risks due to the conflict in the Middle East. As earnings season begins, investors are closely watching JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, set to release third-quarter results on October 11. According to a DataTrek Research note, the financial sector’s earnings outlook isn’t particularly strong, with analysts forecasting a slight 0.4% decline from last year, primarily due to an expected 12% drop in bank earnings. However, Colas stresses that the financial sector includes much more than just banks. Non-bank industries, which make up 76% of the sector, are more influential on overall performance. These subsectors include financial services, capital markets, insurance, and consumer finance. The breakdown of weights is as follows: DataTrek sees large-cap financials as a diverse way to play continued U.S. economic growth. While early bank earnings can offer some insight, Colas notes that they represent just a small part of the financial sector’s overall story, with non-bank subsectors expected to show year-over-year earnings growth. So far in 2024, the U.S. stock market has performed well, with the S&P 500 up 19.4% through Monday, while the financial sector has outpaced it slightly with a 19.8% gain. However, the financial sector has fallen 0.5% in October, while energy has surged 6.5%, reflecting concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East. On Monday, U.S. markets closed lower, with energy being the only S&P 500 sector to end the session in the green. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

U.S. stock
Market News

A Foreigner’s Take on U.S. Stock Market Revival

U.S. Equities Could Reclaim Market Leadership, Analyst Predicts As inflation cools and the nonfarm payroll report regains its prominence, some normalcy has returned for traders. However, the U.S. stock market has experienced unusual underperformance lately. Hubert de Barochez, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, notes that since mid-June, the MSCI USA index has returned less than 5%, only half of what global markets outside the U.S. have achieved. De Barochez highlights four main factors behind this lag. First, U.S. tech stocks, which represent a large part of the market, have been struggling. While there’s been a recent bounce, the U.S. tech sector has seen sharper declines than elsewhere, and communication services have fallen in the U.S. but gained globally. Fears of an economic slowdown have raised doubts about tech earnings growth, with many companies previously “priced for perfection.” Second, the U.S. market has a smaller share of financial stocks, which have benefited from a steepening yield curve. Financials make up just 13% of the U.S. index, compared to 22% of global markets outside the U.S., limiting their positive impact on U.S. returns. Third, the U.S. dollar’s depreciation has boosted foreign equity returns in dollar terms. For instance, Japanese stocks saw significant gains, driven in part by the yen’s 8% rise against the dollar since mid-June. Finally, a 30% surge in Chinese stocks, fueled by Beijing’s economic stimulus, has added to the pressure on U.S. equities. Despite these challenges, de Barochez believes the U.S. market will eventually retake the lead, consistent with historical trends during past Fed easing cycles, which have typically led to stronger returns for U.S. stocks. He also expects a renewed surge in investor enthusiasm for AI, potentially creating a stock market bubble. If AI is recognized as a transformative “general purpose technology” like the internet or the steam engine, equity valuations could soar even higher. However, de Barochez warns that a possible AI bubble burst around 2026 could hit U.S. stocks the hardest. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

market
Market News

Market Turbulence in 2025: The Presidential Factor

Stock market often experience a downturn in the three months following a presidential inauguration. No matter who wins the U.S. presidential election, the stock market tends to face challenges after Inauguration Day in January. Since the creation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 1896, one of its weakest quarters has been the first of a new president’s term, averaging a mere 0.2% return. By comparison, the market usually gains an average of 1.9% in other quarters, regardless of whether the incumbent party remains in power. A study by Ned Davis Research sheds light on this trend, revealing an inverse relationship between a president’s approval rating and the stock market. After Inauguration Day, a president’s approval rating is typically at its peak, which seems to create a drag on market performance. However, when a president’s approval rating dips below 35%, the market tends to fare worse. This has happened only 6.8% of the time since 1959, with notable examples including Richard Nixon’s resignation and the end of George W. Bush’s term during the financial crisis. Currently, President Biden’s approval rating is 39%. It’s puzzling why investors wait until Inauguration Day to recalibrate their expectations, especially since campaign promises often don’t align with economic realities. Even with a cooperative Congress, the math doesn’t support increasing government benefits while simultaneously cutting taxes and reducing the deficit. Yet, political rhetoric frequently leads to unrealistic optimism. Warren Buffett likens this to a joke about an oil prospector who convinces others that oil has been found in hell, prompting them to rush off in pursuit. Similarly, the lofty promises made by politicians are often equivalent to that rumor. Investors should remain cautious, even when the stock market is soaring. It’s important to remember that post-inauguration market weakness is an average trend, not a guarantee. In fact, other market indicators, such as the gold-platinum ratio, are currently signaling a bullish outlook, suggesting that stock prices could rise over the next year—even if the first quarter of 2025 is challenging. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

What Drove Tuesday’s Market Decline? More Than Just Iran

The strike has raised concerns about supply chain disruptions and price increases for goods. Jose Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers, highlighted that the uncertainty around the strike, along with strong warnings from union leaders, has further unsettled market. Port Strike Adds to Softer Start for October While Iran’s missile strike on Israel triggered a sharp selloff in U.S. stocks on Tuesday and caused oil prices to surge, it wasn’t the only factor rattling Wall Street. Analysts also pointed to the impact of a U.S. dockworkers’ strike, which has shut down major East Coast and Gulf ports, potentially affecting the economy by as much as $4 billion per day. Although the missile attack sent stocks plummeting early in the session, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasurys and gold, markets regained some ground later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 173 points, or 0.4%, and the S&P 500 closed with a 0.9% loss. Oil prices, which spiked earlier, settled with gains of over 2%. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, alongside the port strike, are expected to keep markets volatile. Despite this, some analysts believe these events could present buying opportunities. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, noted that market selloffs driven by geopolitical concerns often create favorable entry points for investors. However, the risk of further escalation in the Middle East remains a key threat to the stock market’s momentum. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

gold
Market News

Gold Surges Ahead of Stocks and Bonds in Q3

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF saw a strong surge in the third quarter, fueled by growing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve could successfully achieve a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. By the end of September, many investors appeared more confident that the Fed could lower inflation without triggering a recession. “There’s more confidence that we’re going to stick the soft landing,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. However, Arone also noted that such outcomes are rare, and gold’s strong performance suggests that some investors are still hedging against economic risks. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which invests in physical gold, has soared 27.1% this year, including a 13% rise in the third quarter. This outpaced the S&P 500, which gained 5.5% during the same period and is up 20.8% for the year. September marked the start of the Fed’s interest-rate-cutting cycle, with the central bank opting for a larger-than-expected half-point reduction. This move sparked a rally in U.S. bonds, as the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), which tracks investment-grade bonds, gained 5.3% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, riskier corporate bonds, like the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), saw a 5.7% gain. Despite the optimism, Arone recommends maintaining a small allocation to gold as a hedge against potential risks. He suggests that long-term investors consider a 3% to 10% allocation, emphasizing that falling interest rates make gold an increasingly attractive asset. As the “opportunity cost” of holding gold declines, it remains a valuable safeguard, especially if the economic outlook shifts unexpectedly. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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