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Wall Street’s Projections After August’s Market Challenges

The year 2023 began with a remarkable 21% surge in the S&P 500 during the initial seven months. However, the momentum was abruptly halted by the August downturn. Historical trends indicate that both August and September historically pose challenges for stock markets, with macroeconomic hurdles still in the picture. ? Market Analysis Let’s delve into the sagacity shared by the most esteemed Wall Street minds, as they analyze the market’s direction amidst the August setback. ? JPMorgan’s Interpretation: Dubravko Lakos, the Chief Global Stock Strategist, holds the belief that the 2023 market rally has come to an end. The Federal Reserve’s unwavering stance and a robust economy might restrict short-term growth, leading to an eventual “hard landing.” ? Insights from Morgan Stanley: CIO Mike Wilson underscores Nvidia’s rally-turned-reversal as a signal to moderate stock expectations. The broader rally without substantial foundations appears unsustainable, potentially influenced by the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. ? Fundstrat’s Projection: Tom Lee envisions a revival in September. Anticipating a month-long resurgence, driven by a cooling economy, a stable Federal Reserve stance, and overly pessimistic sentiment, Lee suggests a potential S&P 500 rebound to its 2023 peak. ? Wedbush’s Diagnosis: Dan Ives anticipates an AI-powered tech rally, despite challenges posed by the persistent 10-year stubbornness and Federal Reserve actions. He’s convinced that the surge in AI-driven growth will invigorate the tech sector. ? Siegel’s Analysis: Jeremy Siegel proposes a potential 9% upswing for the S&P 500 from its current levels. This could materialize if Jerome Powell acknowledges waning inflation and the Federal Reserve avoids further interest rate hikes. ? Rosenberg’s Caution: David Rosenberg predicts a market tumble due to economic pressures, including dwindling bond prices and surging yields. A second phase of equity market downturn seems imminent, driven by a labor market impasse. ? Key Advisors Wealth Management’s Vigilance: Eddie Ghabour, the CEO of Key Advisors Wealth Management, raises a cautionary flag, warning of a potential 10% or more decline in stocks following another rate hike. He emphasizes the influence of credit card debt and the resumption of student loan payments. ? Wrapping Up As expert opinions vary, the looming uncertainty is palpable. External factors, encompassing inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and global economic dynamics, are poised to steer the market’s course. Remember, the investment realm is fraught with risks, necessitating prudent decision-making. How do you interpret these insights? Share your thoughts below! ?? John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Treasury Yields Gain Traction, Impacting U.S. Stock-Futures Rally Momentum

Early on Wednesday, U.S. stock index futures experienced a slight softening as the ongoing rally took a brief pause, coinciding with a minor uptick in Treasury yields. Here’s a snapshot of the current status of stock-index futures: In the preceding session, the market performed as follows: Market Dynamics: The U.S. bond market’s sway on stocks remains firm. A slight rise in Treasury yields (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) in the early hours has led to pressure on equity index futures, following Tuesday’s impressive rally. The S&P 500 index reached a peak not seen in three weeks in the prior session. This came in response to a marked decline in Treasury yields, prompted by signals of labor market softness and waning consumer confidence. Over the past three trading days, the benchmark equities index has gained a solid 2.2%, rebounding above its 50-day moving average. This coincides with a drop of nearly 15 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield during the same timeframe. In recent times, equities tend to flourish when implied borrowing costs decrease. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted, “Yesterday marked a classic ‘bad news is good news’ scenario,” attributing the boost in market sentiment to unexpected reductions in U.S. job openings and consumer confidence. She emphasized that these developments have shifted expectations regarding future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Upcoming Data Points: Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the ADP report on private sector employment for August, slated for 8:15 a.m. Eastern. This report is poised to either validate or challenge the prevailing market narrative. Additionally, the July PCE inflation index and the August nonfarm payrolls report are scheduled for publication on Thursday and Friday, respectively. On the agenda for Wednesday are other significant economic updates, including revisions of second-quarter GDP, advanced readings of trade balances in goods, and data on retail and wholesale inventories for July. Additionally, pending home sales data for July will be disclosed at 10 a.m. Eastern. Corporate Spotlight: Today, all eyes are on the earnings outcome of Salesforce (CRM, +0.11%), set to be unveiled after the closing bell. Meanwhile, PC manufacturer HP (HPQ, +0.13%) adopted a cautious stance in its outlook on Tuesday, causing a 9% decline in premarket trade. HP’s CEO, Enrique Lores, highlighted challenges in the PC and printer market while hinting at the potential of AI products to stimulate sales in the future. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

? S&P 500’s August Struggle: No Surprise for Investors

The disappointment of August for stock investors shouldn’t catch anyone off guard. With a history of being the second-worst month for the S&P 500 over the last 35 years, August’s lackluster performance is no anomaly. And September hasn’t always been smooth sailing either. After the tumultuous ride of 2022, some investors are playing it safe, cashing out to safeguard their gains. But don’t lose hope! Our featured perspective today comes from Seth Golden, Chief Market Strategist at Finom Group. He’s here to remind us that the end of the S&P 500’s five-month winning streak doesn’t necessarily spell disaster. Why trust Golden’s insights? Back in February, he accurately predicted the S&P 500 hitting the 4,350 mark by the end of the year, a prediction that came true in June. Brushing aside concerns of a recession, he advised investors to seize opportunities in large growth stocks. And those picks, Amazon (AMZN) and Visa (V), have paid off. Delving into the present, Golden looks at data from Ryan Detrick of Carson Investment Research. Detrick’s study of five-month winning streaks for the S&P 500 since 1950 reveals that 79% of the time, these streaks extend to six months. While this isn’t the current scenario, Golden draws optimism from this data—historically, after five months of gains, the S&P 500’s performance in the six- and twelve-month periods that follow has been positive 82% and 93% of the time, respectively. “The average S&P 500 returns 6 and 12 months later are also 6%+ and 12%+. Savvy market participants may find solace in the evolving price action,” the strategist points out. Further reasons not to jump ship just yet? Golden highlights the confirmation of the bull market on 6/8/23, when the S&P 500 surged 20% from its bear market low. Achieving this shift took 165 days, the second-longest bear-to-bull transition since 1952. Golden concludes, “All but one of these previous bear-to-bull markets outlasted and outperformed the current 9-month cycle. It’s unlikely that a new bear market starts at the 9-month mark without delivering further gains in the 12-month forward period.” John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Stormy Forecast: U.S. Stock Market Braces for an Uncertain Week

The U.S. stock market had an eventful week, breaking its streak of three consecutive losses amid a backdrop of volatility. The period was characterized by significant developments, including Nvidia’s earnings announcement and the much-anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. However, the coming week presents another set of challenges for investors as they await key economic indicators. These indicators include the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and the latest monthly employment report, both of which could determine the market’s direction in the midst of uncertain economic prospects. Powell’s address signaled the central bank’s willingness to further raise interest rates. Yet, he acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the necessity of more rate hikes. This uncertainty arises from the residual effects of the tightening monetary policies over the past year and a half, adding complexity to the decision-making process. Analysts have drawn parallels between Powell’s situation and a mountaineer pausing for breath on a treacherous ascent. The Federal Open Market Committee is grappling with whether they’ve reached the pinnacle of their efforts to manage inflation or if there are more challenges to overcome. Nvidia’s impressive earnings, driven by substantial generative AI revenue, were significant highlights. However, both Nvidia’s results and Powell’s speech aligned with expectations, evoking relatively subdued responses from the usually animated August Wall Street. Despite the mixed week, the U.S. stock market concluded with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.5%, while the S&P 500 advanced by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.3% over the week. Looking ahead, with the Q2 earnings season winding down, attention shifts to upcoming economic data that could provide insights into the U.S. economy’s resilience. Investors are also closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for September 19-20, seeking indications of potential future interest rate adjustments. This week’s reports on the job market, including the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the August ADP National Employment Report, will be pivotal. The Labor Department’s August nonfarm-payrolls report, to be released on Friday, holds immense significance. In a market navigating uncertain terrain, the elusive “Goldilocks scenario” of steady but not stagnant economic growth is the goal. Any economic data exceeding expectations could prompt cautious market reactions. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index assumes paramount importance, aligning with Powell’s emphasis. While recent lower core inflation readings were encouraging, building unwavering confidence in sustained downward inflation trends demands a more extended period of data. In summation, the U.S. stock market endured a dynamic week, leaving investors alert and responsive. The forthcoming reports and indicators will shape the market’s trajectory, as observers seek signs of stability or potential shifts amid the ongoing uncertainty. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

Analyzing the Odds: Will the Stock Market Crash?

The probability of a stock market crash on par with the 1987 event in the upcoming months seems to be significantly exaggerated, even as contrarians find reasons to smile. While the fear of a crash is justified due to the buzz about a potential market bubble, the reality is that the likelihood of a crash similar to 1987 is quite low—just 0.33%. We can assess the general sentiment through a survey conducted by Robert Shiller of Yale University, where participants indicate the chances of a crash with less than a 10% probability within six months. The latest survey indicates that 33.9% of respondents fall into this category, revealing that 66.1% perceive the risk as higher than 10%. This perception has been on an upward trend, with a rise from 64% in 2015 to 74% today in the 24-month moving average, slightly below last year’s peak of 77%. The real probabilities have been studied by Xavier Gabaix of Harvard University and researchers from Boston University’s Center for Polymer Studies, revealing a formula predicting crash frequencies. When applying this to the one-day 22.6% decline on Black Monday in 1987, the probability of such an event is 0.33%. The heightened concerns among investors have roots in the occurrence of two bear markets in rapid succession—early 2020 and 2022. This occurrence is rare and has cast a shadow on long-term investor outlooks. Psychological studies by Camelia Kuhnen from the University of North Carolina underscore how losses trigger more pessimism compared to the optimism generated by gains. This tendency, termed the “pessimism bias,” persists even when markets recover well. Shiller’s crash-confidence index, potentially a contrarian indicator, has shown that higher worries about a crash correlate with better market performance over one-, three-, and five-year periods. While the crash-confidence index may not predict short-term market moves, its strength lies in forecasting robust market performance over the span of several years. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Market News

The Dark Side of Buybacks: Examining Wealth Inequality and Innovation Suppression

“Reevaluating Stock Buybacks: A Force behind Wealth Inequality and Innovation Suppression?” An ongoing debate questions the role of stock buybacks in perpetuating wealth inequality and stifling innovation within the U.S. economy. Should there be a definitive ban on these practices, especially when executed as open-market repurchases? According to William Lazonick, an esteetock marketmed figure hailing from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and also the President of the Academic-Industry Research Network, the answer is a resounding “yes.” Lazonick, a long-standing critic of corporate stock buybacks, recently unveiled his book “Investing in Innovation: Confronting Predatory Value Extraction in the U.S. Corporation,” in which he contends that these buybacks form a critical component of what he labels as “predatory value extraction.” The concept of predatory value extraction centers on the idea that senior executives, Wall Street financiers, and hedge fund managers manage to extract a disproportionately larger amount of value from corporations where they hold shares, in comparison to their actual contributions to value creation within those organizations. However, the ramifications extend beyond this. These stock buybacks have inadvertently rendered American corporations more susceptible to foreign competitors, particularly in sectors critical to national security and productivity, like aviation, communications, semiconductors, and alternative energy. This vulnerability stems from businesses opting to allocate profits to buybacks instead of investing in innovation and infrastructure. As a result, these companies are compelled to procure essential technologies from foreign rivals, predominantly in Asia. Before the widespread adoption of buybacks in the 1980s, companies typically reinvested the bulk of their profits to foster growth or reward employees for their contributions to value creation. This narrative shifted drastically as buybacks gained momentum, becoming a popular strategy for elevating share prices by reducing the number of outstanding shares. Between 2012 and 2021, the 474 firms listed in the S&P 500 (as of January 2022) channeled a staggering $5.7 trillion into the stock market through buybacks, equating to 55% of their collective net income. Additionally, another $4.2 trillion was distributed as dividends, consuming an additional 41% of net income. While dividends offer benefits to all shareholders, buybacks predominantly benefit those selling shares, including senior managers whose compensation often involves stock holdings and hedge fund managers aiming to capitalize on market timing. Lazonick’s book offers various examples illustrating the shift from a strategy focused on “retain and invest” to “dominate and distribute,” and its consequences for the workforce. The table below highlights the top 20 purchasers of their own stock from 2010 to 2019, along with distributions made during pandemic years. Eleven companies followed the “dominate and distribute” approach before the pandemic, encompassing major players like Apple, Oracle, Microsoft, Cisco, Walmart, Intel, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson, Amgen, Qualcomm, and Gilead. These companies utilized profits from their commanding market positions to bolster stock prices. On the other hand, seven firms including Exxon Mobil, IBM, Procter & Gamble, General Electric, Merck, McDonald’s, and Boeing pursued a “downsize and distribute” strategy, allocating funds to shareholders as they downsized their workforces. The remaining two, Pfizer and Disney, ceased buybacks in 2019 to return to a “retain and invest” strategy. Lazonick underscores that companies such as Disney, Home Depot, McDonald’s, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart employ a significant number of low-wage workers. These workers could potentially benefit from substantial pay raises funded by capital allocated to buybacks. Elevating wages and benefits for low-paid workers at profitable firms can have a ripple effect, boosting incomes across the broader economy. Even the pharmaceutical sector, represented by companies like Amgen, Gilead Sciences, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and Pfizer, faces scrutiny. Despite advocating for high drug prices to support research and development, these firms distributed a significant 110% of their net income to shareholders and share sellers between 2012 and 2021. Buybacks alone accounted for 55% of net income, surpassing other sectors. Lazonick also highlights the technology sector, using Cisco Systems as an example of a company favoring buybacks over investment in learning that fuels innovative communication-infrastructure products. Since 2001, Cisco’s management has allocated a staggering $159.7 billion to buybacks, equivalent to 93% of net income. Concurrently, the U.S. has fallen behind global competitors in areas like 5G and the Internet of Things. Apple’s trajectory follows a similar narrative. Initially relying on Samsung Electronics to fabricate chips for iPhones, Apple shifted its outsourcing to TSMC, catalyzing the latter’s ascent to prominence in advanced nanometer chip fabrication. According to Lazonick, five steps are crucial to curbing predatory value extraction: The implications are substantial. An Oxfam report revealed that by 2022, inflation had eroded the earnings value for 32% of the U.S. labor force, leaving them with hourly wages of $15 or less. In his 2022 State of the Union address, President Joe Biden proposed a 4% tax on buybacks. However, Lazonick argues that this is insufficient. If the administration opts for taxation instead of a ban, Lazonick suggests a 40% surcharge, accompanied by a prominent message on corporate repurchasers’ websites: “STOCK BUYBACKS DESTROY THE MIDDLE CLASS.” John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

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