Market News

Markets Rebound After Trump Delays EU Tariff Hike U.S. stock futures and European equity markets rallied Monday after former President Donald Trump announced a delay to the planned 50% tariffs on European Union goods, easing immediate trade tensions. In a Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump said he would postpone the tariff increase from June 1 to July 9 following a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who requested more time to negotiate a deal. His Friday announcement of the tariff hike had rattled global markets, with the S&P 500 falling 0.6%. While U.S. markets were closed Monday for Memorial Day, futures signaled strong gains when trading resumes Tuesday. Dow futures rose 450 points, or 1%, to 42,124. S&P 500 futures climbed 1.2% to 5,888, and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 1.4% to 21,272. European stocks rebounded from Friday’s losses. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1%, offsetting its 0.9% drop in the previous session—its worst since April 9. Germany’s DAX surged 1.7%, and France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.1%. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1384, while the 10-year German bund yield increased by 3 basis points to 2.602%, amid broad dollar weakness. “The EU is the U.S.’s largest trading partner, and renewed tensions could spark a broader risk-off sentiment,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. She noted the euro is attracting haven flows as uncertainty rises. Analysts warn that the risk of further tariffs could shake investor confidence heading into the summer. “June could be a rocky month for markets, with the U.S. working to avoid retaliatory tariffs through global trade talks,” said Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. The EU had already faced a 10% tariff following Trump’s April 2 “liberation day” trade policy. Friday’s proposed hike to 50% briefly threatened to escalate the standoff before the delay was confirmed. Von der Leyen described her conversation with Trump as “good,” posting on X that the extension to July 9 would give both sides time to work toward a deal. Trade uncertainty is also impacting U.S. businesses. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg TV on Monday that companies want clarity before making investment decisions. He added that upcoming trade outcomes could influence Fed policy, alongside inflation and labor data. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows a 58% probability of a September rate cut. European stocks have drawn more interest from Wall Street this year. The Stoxx Europe 600 is up 8.3%, while the S&P 500 is down 1.3%. Still, Citigroup analysts cautioned that a lasting 50% tariff could cause the European index to drop by 7% to 8%. Goldman Sachs economists, led by Guillaume Jaisson, forecast flat GDP growth for the eurozone in 2025, warning that renewed trade friction could further strain the region’s weak economic outlook. “Investor flows into European equities have improved, but remain relatively light,” Jaisson said. “While domestic interest is rising, positioning is still cautious.” John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Rob Citrone Predicts U.S. Economic Trade Boom in 2026, Sees Big Upside in Latin America Despite recent market turbulence, hedge fund veteran Rob Citrone remains confident in both the U.S. economy and select global opportunities. Speaking on Goldman Sachs’ Exchanges podcast, the Discovery Capital Management founder shared his view that markets have grown more volatile and less efficient — but also more full of opportunity. “Markets today don’t anticipate events the way they used to,” said Citrone, a former protégé of George Soros and Julian Robertson. “There’s more retail money and algorithmic trading now, and they react to headlines rather than looking ahead.” Citrone’s approach combines macroeconomic analysis with deep dives into individual assets — a strategy he’s used successfully for over 25 years. His fund has gained roughly 50% in each of the past two years, bringing Discovery Capital’s assets under management to around $3 billion. A key driver of those returns: shorting two of the regional banks that failed in 2023. He acknowledges that shorting is now rare, calling it “a lost art” after many funds were burned during the meme-stock era. But he still sees compelling opportunities on both the long and short side of the market. Citrone is optimistic about the U.S. economy’s future. He expects a boom in 2026, powered by potential tax cuts and relatively modest tariffs, likely capped at 10% outside of China. He believes this will push the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% by year-end, making rate cuts by the Federal Reserve unlikely. His confidence in the U.S. rests on what he calls its “exceptionalism” — a strong private sector and technological leadership. But valuations are already pricing in a lot of that optimism, which is why he’s also looking abroad. One region he’s especially excited about: Latin America. Citrone says the area offers undervalued assets and outsized returns across equities, bonds, credit, and currencies. He sees the region as a relative safe haven amid shifting U.S. trade policy, with no country facing tariffs above 10%. “Latin America is often overlooked in favor of Asia,” he said. “But China faces a tough road ahead, and I believe Latin America is on the verge of a boom.” Argentina is his biggest conviction trade right now. Since President Javier Milei’s election in December 2023, Citrone has loaded up on local peso-denominated credit, calling it “a home run.” Milei’s market-friendly reforms and commitment to reducing government spending have fueled a rally, with Argentina’s MERVAL index up roughly 150% since he took office. Citrone compares the trade to one of his most successful bets — going long the dollar versus the yen in 2013, which earned his fund over a billion dollars. For retail investors looking to tap into these opportunities, Citrone points to ETFs like the iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) and the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT). In a market that’s increasingly driven by noise, Citrone believes fundamentals still matter — and that patient, thoughtful investors can thrive. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Memorial Day Weekend 2025: What’s Open and What’s Closed As Memorial Day weekend kicks off, many are keeping a close eye on the markets. While stocks have bounced back from April’s tariff concerns, uncertainty still lingers around trade policies and tax reform. Meanwhile, turbulence in the $29 trillion Treasury market has investors on edge heading into the three-day break. Here’s your quick guide to what’s open and closed during the holiday weekend, including early Friday closures and full shutdowns on Memorial Day, Monday, May 26. U.S. Financial Markets Mail and Delivery Services Banks Most banks, including Federal Reserve branches, will be closed on Monday. ATMs and mobile banking remain available for transactions. Government Offices Expect closures at most federal, state, and local government offices, including courthouses and DMVs, in observance of the federal holiday. Schools Public schools are generally closed on Memorial Day, though it’s best to check with your local school district. Retail Stores and Pharmacies Holiday Shopping Memorial Day is known for major retail sales. Expect big discounts on furniture, mattresses, outdoor gear, and summer apparel. It’s one of the best times of year to shop for your home and garden. In Summary:Markets, mail, and government offices will hit pause for Memorial Day, while most stores stay open—and sales heat up. Whether you’re planning a shopping trip or just trying to beat the rush, a little planning can go a long way. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Morgan Stanley Sees S&P 500 Climbing to 7,100 as Market Outlook Brightens Stocks faced pressure on Wednesday as rising bond yields stirred investor nerves ahead of a key Treasury auction. But Morgan Stanley took a bullish stance, upgrading its outlook on U.S. equities and bonds. The firm now favors U.S. assets across the board, citing “slow-but-not-dire” global growth. “We’re neutral on global equities but more optimistic on fixed income, with a strong regional preference for the U.S.,” said a team of strategists led by Mike Wilson. Previously targeting 6,500 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, the bank now sees that as a baseline for Q2 2026. Their bull case points to a 21% rally to 7,200, while the bear case sees a dip to 4,900—all based on the index’s May 19 level of 5,964. Why the Optimism? Morgan Stanley argues that much of the equity market has already endured “rolling earnings recessions” over the last three years, setting up easier comparisons and a broad-based earnings rebound. They expect EPS growth to be supported by expected Fed rate cuts in 2026, a weaker dollar, and greater productivity driven by AI adoption. The strategists also believe the worst is behind us. The sharp market reaction to the recent “Liberation Day” tariff announcements marked what they call a capitulation phase. “Assuming no deep recession, we believe the lows are in,” they said. Over the next 6 to 12 months, they foresee a shift toward more market-friendly policies — infrastructure spending, tax incentives, deregulation, and rate cuts — that could further lift equities. Additionally, a pause in U.S.-China tariffs has helped reduce recession risks. Their economic team now expects seven Fed rate cuts in 2026, which they say will support higher valuations. Near-Term Risks, Long-Term Drivers The 10-year Treasury yield — recently at 4.55% — remains a short-term concern. Morgan Stanley sees yields staying rangebound through year-end before dropping to 3.45% by Q2 2026 as expectations for Fed easing build. These elevated yields may keep equity valuations in check near term, with the S&P 500 expected to remain between 5,500 and 6,100 through the first half of 2025. After that, the path toward 6,500 becomes more likely. That 6,500 forecast is built on a 21.5x P/E multiple and 12-month forward earnings of $302. The strategists see this as more realistic by mid-2026, considering recent market weakness and delayed effects from trade uncertainty. Where to Invest Morgan Stanley continues to recommend high-quality cyclical stocks — companies with strong balance sheets, consistent returns, and lower leverage. They’ve upgraded industrials from neutral to overweight, citing benefits from increased infrastructure investment. Utilities have also been moved to overweight, reflecting a reduced focus on defensive sectors. The strategists favor large-caps over small-caps and U.S. stocks over international names, as earnings momentum builds domestically. They also forecast a 9% drop in the U.S. dollar (ICE Dollar Index) over the next year, driven by easing U.S. rates and a shift toward defensive currencies like the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com

Stocks Are Booming — But Bonds, the Dollar, and Gold Tell a Different Story The S&P 500 is flirting with bull market territory, ending Monday just shy of the 20% gain mark from its April low. Investors appear to have shrugged off Moody’s recent U.S. credit downgrade, pushing equities higher in what looks like a broad risk-on rally. But beneath the surface, not all is well. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned Monday of “an extraordinary amount of complacency” in markets, and Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, agrees. In a note to clients, she highlighted three major market signals that are diverging sharply from the bullish sentiment in stocks — and could spell trouble ahead. 1. Treasury Yields Are Flashing Caution While short-term Treasury yields reflect growing confidence in the economy, longer-term yields tell a more complex story. The 10-year yield is inching toward 4.5%, a level that reflects not just growth optimism, but also concern over rising real rates and growing U.S. debt burdens. With Congress considering new tax, spending, and budget packages that could add $2 trillion in debt, Shalett warns this could drive interest costs sharply higher over the next decade. That means structurally higher rates — and lower valuations for stocks. 2. The Dollar’s Weakness Defies the Rally Since peaking in January, the U.S. dollar has fallen 8% against major currencies, despite the surge in equities. Even more puzzling: the dollar is now moving with oil prices, reversing a long-standing inverse relationship. Shalett suggests this signals a shift in global capital flows and reserve allocations. A weaker dollar could lead to diminished foreign investment in U.S. assets — another potential headwind for equities. 3. Gold Is Outperforming — and That’s Unusual Gold, typically a hedge against turmoil, has been outperforming U.S. stocks since 2022. That’s not typical during a stock market boom. Shalett sees this as another sign that global investors — including central banks — are seeking alternatives to dollar-denominated assets. “Strength in gold, disconnected from traditional safe-haven behavior, hints at structural shifts in global reserves and risk perceptions,” she said. Not the Time for Complacency Investors hoping for a repeat of the “Goldilocks” environment of 2023–2024 — falling real rates and a resilient dollar — may be in for disappointment. Shalett forecasts more modest average returns for U.S. equities (5%–10%) amid increased volatility, tighter financial conditions, and a weaker dollar. Her advice: use the current rally to rebalance. She recommends increasing exposure to international equities, commodities, energy infrastructure, hedge funds, and shorter-duration investment-grade and municipal bonds. “This is not the time to rely on valuation expansion,” she warned. John PaulJohn Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software company established in 2008, supporting traders worldwide. His expertise focuses on price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis. DayTradeToWin delivers trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based decision-making across global futures markets. He is the creator of multiple trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, which help traders identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC). Official website: https://daytradetowin.com daytradetowin.com