Following Election Day, U.S. stocks often face headwinds—not necessarily because of post-election uncertainty but due to a long-term trend of below-average performance in the immediate weeks afterward. Historically, stock markets tend to perform better when the incumbent party retains the White House, while declines are more frequent when the opposition...
The U.S. stock market is gearing up for its historically strongest six-month period, November through April, following impressive gains over the summer months. Traditionally, investors adhere to the “sell in May and go away” adage, but this year’s performance defied that trend. Yet with rising Treasury yields and the looming...
Throughout most of 2024, stock-market investors showed little concern over whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris might win the presidential race. However, with Election Day just two weeks away, political anxiety has finally begun to impact equities. This week, a notable climb in Treasury yields, which have been on the...
Citigroup strategists are growing concerned about the current bullish sentiment in the stock market but aren’t advising investors to reduce their positions yet. Chris Montagu, Citigroup’s global head of quantitative research, noted that net-long positioning in S&P 500 futures has reached its highest level since July 2023. At that time,...
BNP Paribas and UBS Global Wealth Management Highlight U.S. Economy’s Resilience The U.S. economy is once again in the spotlight, with The Economist calling it the envy of the world in a recent cover story. While some, like Brett Donnelly from Spectra Markets, have noted that such magazine covers often...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s performance as a predictor of U.S. presidential election outcomes warrants serious consideration. There is a strong correlation between the Dow’s year-to-date return through mid-October and the chances of the incumbent party winning the presidency. This relationship is statistically significant at a 97% confidence level. Currently,...
