Throughout most of 2024, stock-market investors showed little concern over whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris might win the presidential race. However, with Election Day just two weeks away, political anxiety has finally begun to impact equities. This week, a notable climb in Treasury yields, which have been on the...
Citigroup strategists are growing concerned about the current bullish sentiment in the stock market but aren’t advising investors to reduce their positions yet. Chris Montagu, Citigroup’s global head of quantitative research, noted that net-long positioning in S&P 500 futures has reached its highest level since July 2023. At that time,...
BNP Paribas and UBS Global Wealth Management Highlight U.S. Economy’s Resilience The U.S. economy is once again in the spotlight, with The Economist calling it the envy of the world in a recent cover story. While some, like Brett Donnelly from Spectra Markets, have noted that such magazine covers often...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s performance as a predictor of U.S. presidential election outcomes warrants serious consideration. There is a strong correlation between the Dow’s year-to-date return through mid-October and the chances of the incumbent party winning the presidency. This relationship is statistically significant at a 97% confidence level. Currently,...
Yardeni Research remains unconvinced that recent stimulus measures will make China a more attractive investment than the U.S. or India, stating that “it would take much more than interest-rate cuts, easier financing, and fiscal stimulus.” Chinese stocks have been under pressure, with recent declines wiping out gains from the September...
Matt Rowe, head of portfolio management and cross-asset strategies at Nomura Capital Management, warns that “higher degrees of inflation are our reality moving forward.” Investors are increasingly anxious about inflation risks that haven’t yet been factored into the bond market, especially with the upcoming November 5 presidential election looming. As...
