Barclays has estimated hedge fund investor returns to range between 10% and 11% in 2024, based on a weighted average across various investor types, such as pension funds, family offices, and private banks. This estimate aligns with Hedge Fund Research’s weighted composite index, which also reported a 10% increase last...
A sharp selloff in the U.S. Treasury market has sent shockwaves through global financial markets just days into the new year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has surged, approaching the 5% mark—a level rarely seen since the global financial crisis. “Markets are rattled by the 5% level...
Since the early 1980s, only twice has the 10-year Treasury yield surged nearly as much as the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates—a rare event tied closely to rising inflation expectations. This unusual bond market behavior is now rattling stock market investors. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which influences borrowing...
Gold Futures Rally Amid Fiscal Concerns and Safe-Haven Demand Gold futures are trading 1.9% higher so far in 2025, with prices reaching a four-week high on Thursday. This surge comes despite typically adverse conditions, including a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, as investors seek refuge from growing fiscal...
The Santa Claus Rally, known for the S&P 500 (SPX) tendency to rise during the final five trading days of a year and the first two of the new year, failed to materialize this time, with the index dropping 0.53%. In contrast, the first-five-days indicator offered a more positive outlook,...
Beware When Market Timers Stay Bullish After a Sharp Downturn Recent shifts in market sentiment underscore a critical lesson for investors: sustained bullishness after a market downturn can be a red flag. In early December, stock-market timers exhibited extraordinary optimism, with the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) reaching a...
