Riding the Bull: How Sideline Cash Reserves Signal Continued Stock Market Growth
The stock market saw a sharp downturn just before Valentine’s Day, leading some to question if it was an overreaction. However, indications from stock futures suggest that bargain hunters are already on the lookout. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, explains that the market was caught off guard, lacking adequate safeguards and being overly optimistic about risk.
He notes the frustration among those betting against risk, as such sell-offs often lack sustained momentum. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data is yet to be released, scheduled for February 29.
Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat and a notable bullish figure on Wall Street, describes Tuesday’s stock plunge as an overreaction, predicting that it won’t gain traction. Lee, who accurately turned bullish in 2023 when others were bearish, believes this downturn will be temporary, though he warns investors to brace for a challenging first half of the year.
Lee’s optimism is supported by several factors. Firstly, he observes that markets typically don’t falter on positive news, as was the case with Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. He also notes that despite inflation concerns, the downward trend hasn’t halted.
Secondly, Lee points to ample “dry powder” on the sidelines, suggesting that buying power has yet to peak. He compares the current level of NYSE margin debt to previous market tops, indicating room for further borrowing before a downturn.
Furthermore, the presence of significant cash reserves, as mentioned by a BlackRock executive in November, supports the notion that the market hasn’t reached its zenith. Lee emphasizes that skepticism remains prevalent, which typically doesn’t coincide with a market peak.
Lee anticipates that a significant macroeconomic event triggering a stock sell-off could signal the peak. In the meantime, he advises investors to focus on small-cap stocks, particularly through the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, which he believes will rebound as the market stabilizes.
The Russell 2000 index suffered the most on Tuesday, experiencing its largest single-day decline since June 2022, yet Lee remains optimistic about its prospects once the market regains its footing.
