As the Wall of Worry Falls, Stock Market Rises: What to Expect Moving Forward
At present, the S&P 500 index is showing an optimistic market trend and there is minimal volatility. Moreover, more stocks are demonstrating an increase in value compared to earlier months. Does this suggest that investors should not have any worries?
It appears that there is no cause for concern in the stock market for this week. The S&P 500 increased by 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.1%. Additionally, the VIX, or fear index, has dropped below 14 points, which hasn’t happened since before the pandemic. This indicates that there is no sign of anxiety or worry within the market.
Why should we bother? Both the Republican and Democratic parties have consented to increase the debt limit until the next presidential election, and the worries concerning financial upheaval have lessened. Furthermore, the economic statistics suggest that there’s not much reason to fret over a possible economic downturn.
According to Marko Kolanovic, who serves as J.P. Morgan’s primary strategist for worldwide markets, there is no need for alarm regarding a near-term recession as both the U.S. and global economies remain robust and steady.
The market’s recent positive developments have reignited interest in stocks and industries beyond the limited influence of a few major tech companies that fueled the stock market in May. While the companies within the S&P SmallCap 600 index are less focused on long-term trends like artificial intelligence and more focused on traditional economic growth, they have still managed to achieve a 7% increase this month. The growth of industries like finance and industry signals a promising trend for the S&P 500, which would have remained stagnant this year without the boost from a few large-cap stocks. However, it’s not sustainable to rely on a few key players indefinitely.
Given that the values of other stocks are also on the increase, it seems fitting that the S&P 500 has emerged from its longest bear market since 1948, spanning 248 trading days. Despite the fact that there is still a 10% rise needed to hit the index’s highest record from early 2022, there is a possibility that this target may be reached.
In order to make progress, certain hurdles need to be cleared. The inflation figures for May are set to be revealed on Tuesday. Forecasts suggest that the core consumer price index will rise by 0.4% compared to the previous month, a rate identical to that observed in April. Additionally, there will be a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, a decline from the 5.5% recorded in the previous month.
The group responsible for overseeing Federal Reserve policies is set to release a statement a day later. The prognosis from the markets for future events is that there will be a cessation in the upward trend of interest rates, which have increased by five percentage points since March 2022. If there is an unanticipated outcome in either of the Consumer Price Index measurements, it could result in a decrease in trust within the market.
Kolanovic suggests that the United States will probably undergo an economic downturn, even though it may be postponed, because of factors like lower profits and tighter credit policies. He states that these conditions suggest that the economy is approaching its limits and the conclusion of its expansion period could be near.
Currently, the market’s worries and anxieties are diminishing slowly. It is recommended that we take advantage of this advantageous trend while it persists.