Unlocking the Secrets: How January Predicts the Future of U.S. Stocks in 2024
Bespoke Investment Group’s analysis suggests that the S&P 500 index is poised for continued upward momentum in 2024, building on its strong January performance.
The research team at Bespoke observed a historical trend wherein, if the S&P 500 maintains positive gains through a certain point in January, it tends to further climb during the final four trading days of the month.
When the index concludes January with a positive performance, the probability of sustained growth throughout the year significantly improves. According to Bespoke’s analysis spanning from 1953 to 2023, when the S&P 500 exhibited a 2% or more gain in January, the median performance for the rest of the year averaged an impressive 13.5%.
Additionally, positive returns were recorded for the remainder of the year in 84% of such instances.
Conversely, when the S&P 500 finishes January with gains of less than 2% or in negative territory, the median performance for the rest of the year drops to 6.4%, with positive returns occurring in only 68% of cases. Presently, FactSet data indicates a 2.5% increase in the S&P 500 since the start of January.
Although the index is set to finish slightly lower on Friday, down 0.1% at 4,887 in the final 90 minutes of trading for the week, historical trends suggest an optimistic outlook for the rest of the year based on the January performance.